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Thread: FBS: Finance. Freedom. Success.

  1. #21
    virtue
    Guest

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  2. Under 1st Post -dynamo
  3. #22
    virtue
    Guest

    Trade recommendations after Greek deal

    Greeceís agreement with private creditors and the following ISDAís decision to admit the Greek debt restructuring entitling to CDS-contracts payments, became the key news events of the previous week. On the back of this deal Fitch Rating agency slashed the Greek sovereign scores from "C" to "RD" ("restricted default").

    J.P. Morgan Asset Management strategists confirm that Greece raises serious concerns today. Moreover, there are also risks connected with Portugal or Spain getting infected and the results of the spring elections in France.

    However, analysts believe that in the short term Greece is largely resolved due to the ECB support and positive global data including the U.S. nonfarm payroll report. In particular, they recommend buying the euro against the Japanese yen. The euro is going to be helped by better risk appetite, and the yen, meanwhile, is weakening.

    J.P. Morgan: The best is to enter the trade at 108.20 with a target of 114.00 and a stop at 105.50.

    BMO Capital: If you are bullish on the euro, don't buy it against the U.S. dollar. The yen is the best way to do it because of the massive quantitative easing.

    Commerzbank: In the medium term the ECBís expansionary monetary policy will put pressure on the euro, in particular if the outstanding US data continues to point towards a robust economy thus reducing the likelihood of further US quantitative easing.

  4. #23
    virtue
    Guest

    Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

    Weekly GBP/USD

    British pound kept declining versus its US counterpart from late February minimum at $1.6000. On the weekly chart GBP/USD closed last week below the Standard line (1), which is currently acting as resistance. The prices will get support from the Turning line (2) which is moving slowly upwards.

    The descending Ichimoku Cloud was widening for some time, though Senkou Span A (4) has turned horizontal. As a result, if Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen form “golden cross” and Kumo starts narrowing, the bulls will get chance to reverse the trend lifting sterling to the lower border of the Cloud (4). Otherwise, the pair will keep moving lower within the current downtrend.


  5. #24
    virtue
    Guest

    Daily GBP/USD

    On the daily chart one may see that the pair’s advance stalled last month and the rate went sideways. Pound failed to overcome important resistance and prices went below both the 9-day MA or so-called Tenkan-sen (1) and the 26-day Kijun-sen (2).

    As a result, despite the bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4), there’s no uptrend on the chart. GBP/USD is supported only by Kumo: if sterling enters the Cloud, it will likely dip to its lower border – Senkou Span B (4).

    At the same time, the bulls are struggling to retrace at least a part of Friday’s decline and hold the priced above the Cloud.


  6. #25
    virtue
    Guest

    CFTC data: US dollar longs increased

    he latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that speculative investors increased their net long US dollar position by $6.1 billion (80%) to $15.4 billion.

    As you may see in the table below, the greenback was bought versus all IMM (International Monetary Market) currencies except Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. The latter are supported by carry trades and high oil prices. Euro, British pound and Japanese yen are sold due to the loose monetary policy of these nations’ central banks, while Australian and New Zealand’s dollars were hurt by the worsening of China’s economic prospects.

    The net positions for American currency are long for 25th consecutive week, the longest period of positive dollar sentiment since 1999.

    Chart. Net aggregate speculate IMM position in USD (Source: CFTC, Saxo bank, Bloomberg).

    It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound.

  7. #26
    virtue
    Guest

    The Fed's policy will remain unchanged

    On Tuesday the Fed's Open Market Committee meets to decide monetary policy. The announcement of further bond buying can pose a risk to a resurgent dollar this week, but most analysts doubt that will happen. Recent stronger-than-expected February employment numbers (NFP +227K) has quelled speculation that the central bank might resort to a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) to stimulate the economy. However, an antinomy is observed: the US labor market seems do better, but this has not been matched by a rise in production, demand or consumer spending.

    Many analysts say the FOMC is unlikely to offer new measures to stimulate the economy, especially as the Fed continues with its "Operation Twist" effort to keep long-term interest rates low.
    The current “Operation Twist”, a $400bn switch into Treasury securities with longer to run until maturity, will use up almost all of the shorter-term Treasuries that the Fed has to sell and take its holdings of some long-term Treasuries close to limits on market liquidity.

    Bank of America-Merrill Lynch: While the FOMC is likely to acknowledge the oil market risk, as well as the general improvement in activity data recently, we anticipate the statement will still be supportive of the current easing bias.
    BNY Mellon: Good data will reinforce the Fed's view that what they're doing is working and they're not going to stop now. They seem determined to fight the devil they know instead of the devil they don't.

    The chance of an even more-dovish FOMC could once more upend the dollar. The fact that these days the dollar seems to be a safe-harbor from Europe's debt crisis may also help the dollar go up at the euro's expense. On the other hand, investors look forward to Bernanke’s announcements about QE3. The Chairman’s silence of may cause the correction.

  8. #27
    virtue
    Guest

    EUR/USD: main technical levels

    Technical analysts at Commerzbank underline that the single currency is facing strong resistance versus the greenback in the $1.3291/1.3325 area.

    As long as euro’s trading below these levels, the outlook for it will remain bearish. Support is situated at $1.3095 (last week's 3-week minimum), $1.3080 (55-day MA) and $1.3050 (50% Fibonacci retracement from this year's advance) and $1.3000.

    EUR/USD risks dropping to $1.2974/54 (February minimum) and $1.2624 (January minimum). If the pair slides below the latter, it will be poised down to $1.2000.

    Strategists at Varengold Bank expect EUR/USD to close today below support at $1.3100 citing negative signals from the MACD.


  9. #28
    virtue
    Guest

    UBS, RBS, Credit Agricole: EUR/USD forecasts

    UBS: “US payrolls data were again strong in February, with both the headline figure beating expectations and previous months' seeing decent upwards revisions. Continued employment creation at this pace makes it increasingly hard for Federal Reserve doves to keep pushing the case for further quantitative easing, especially in light of the fact that tail risks associated with the possibility of a European meltdown have been cut back materially. The ECB's successful LTRO operations and the positive Greek PSI outcome have helped in this regard.”

    RBS: “Less QE (quantitative easing) in the U.S. is positive for the dollar ... dollar will do better against the yen, euro and sterling. In Europe the weakest data is in the countries with the weakest fiscal position, which is worrying and it's still a case of selling euro on any rallies.” According to the bank, EUR/USD will fall to $1.26 during the next 2-3 months in case U.S. data in the coming weeks is positive.

    Credit Agricole: “There's a risk of EUR/USD sustaining a move below $1.31. There are worries about whether Portugal will follow Greece, whether Greece will need another bailout, whether the underlying issues in the country will be resolved.”

    Deutsche Bank: “U.S. growth forecasts are being scaled back even as the labor market picks up and that will weigh on the U.S. dollar” – American economic growth is expected to slow this quarter from the fourth quarter's 3% growth (y/y) as consumer spending flattened and exports remained sluggish. However, taking into account euro zone’s problems (primarily, uncertainty about Spain and Italy), the bank’s “baseline scenario remains the euro to drop towards $1.25 in coming months.”


  10. #29
    virtue
    Guest

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  11. #30
    virtue
    Guest

    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    RBS: analyzing GBP crosses

    Analysts at RBS claim that the recent strong US data is having a negative impact on the pair GBP/USD because of rate spreads and reduced probability of the Fedís QE3. In addition, recent dynamics shows that EUR/GBP is also finding itself under pressure.

    UK manufacturing data released last week (+0.1% m/m in January after +1.1% in December) shows that GBP weakness isn't rebalancing the nationís economy. It may also mean that that sterlingís decline can be structural rather than cyclical and further weakness is likely.

    According to RBS, GBP/JPY is overvalued by less than 4%, GBP/AUD may be around 4.7% overvalued, while GBP/NZD is estimated to be 2.3% overvalued. The specialists say that GBP/USD and EUR/GBP look fairly valued from a short-term perspective.

    The bank underlines that the key driving force of all GBP G10 crosses is rate spreads. The dynamics of pound versus euro, US dollar, Japanese yen, Australian and New Zealandís dollars is also influenced by significant moves in balance sheets. As for the correlation with risk, it has weakened during the past month for most GBP G10 currency pairs except GBP/USD and GBP/JPY where positive correlations have tightened marginally. EUR/GBP has a positive correlation with risk but this has edged lower since March 5. Further worries over the solvency of Euro zone countries may loosen this correlation further.


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