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Thread: FBS: Finance. Freedom. Success.

  1. #41
    virtue
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    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    Societe Generale: risks from China property market

    Economists at Societe Generale warn that investors’ optimism for the global economic prospects is vulnerable to the signs of fragility in U.S. growth momentum or of the slowdown of Chinese property market and bank loan growth.

    The specialists claim that in the second quarter China's property sales may contract by about 10% in weighted prices losing nearly 20% of volume. In their view, while the decline may be rapid, it will be constrained. This year will likely be the bottom for Chinese property market.

    China’s Premier Wen Jiabao claimed today that the nation’s home prices are still are still significantly above the reasonable level. Wen underlined that China would have to maintain efforts to curb real estate speculation as the property bubble would harm the economy if it burst.

    Property sales in the world’s fastest-growing economy fell by 20.9% in the first two months of 2012 from a year earlier as the government had introduced a series of measures including property sales taxes and lending restrictions to curb speculation.

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  3. #42
    virtue
    Guest

    Greece defaults… Who’s next?

    During the recent weeks the market was focused on the events unfolding in Greece. At the same time there are other nations in the list of the euro zone’s problem economies.

    As a result, the question arises: was Greece a “completely unique case” as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Shaeuble said last week or will the indebted peripheral countries follow its path (conducting debt swaps and retroactively enacting collective-action clauses in its debt contracts)?

    The yields of peripheral European debt have been relatively quiet so far. Portugal's 10-year yields, for example, slid from the record maximum of 18.29% in January to 13.71%, though still far from normal levels. Are we witnessing the first signs of improvement or is it a lull before the storm?

    Portugal

    Portugal is seen as the first candidate for default. The nation’s sovereign debt is lower than the Greek one, but Portugal has a far higher level of private sector debt – 200% of GDP versus Greece’s 120%. Such level of debt is hardly sustainable and will need writing down through the banking system and, consequently, sovereign help to support the banks.

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that talks about a second international bailout for Portugal may begin later this year as the current 78 billion-euro aid plan will keep the nation funded only through September 2013 and the IMF “cannot disburse if a twelve-month funding outlook is not guaranteed.”

    Portugal's economy fell by 1.6% in 2011 and may lose 3.0% this year, Troika experts say. The European Commission, the ECB and the IMF appraised Portugal for austerity measures. However, the specialists point out that last year the nation manages to lower deficit to the 5.9% level which is in line with the target only through transferring funds (5.6 billion euro or 1.9% of GDP) from the banking-sector pension system to the government social security one. The country’s public debt may reach 118% of GDP in 2013 from 102.7% of GDP last year.

    Spain

    According to governmental forecasts, Spanish economy will contract by 1.7% in 2012. The nation’s jobless rate is the highest in Europe: unemployment rose from 21.7% in December to 23.3% in January and is expected to reach 24.3% this year.

    Spain was supposed to cut its deficit-to-GDP ratio to 4.4% in 2012, a goal agreed with EU finance ministers, but the new government announced earlier this month that it would only be able to cut its deficit to 5.8% of GDP for this year and promised to maintain a 2013 target of 3%. On Monday European finance ministers ordered Spain to bring its deficit down to 5.3%.

    Meanwhile, the Spanish employees demonstrate against the government's new labor reform. It affects most worker entitlements, making the dismissal of employees simpler, reducing salaries and increasing working hours. The government is aiming at revitalizing the economy and proving that Spain will not require a bailout to overcome its problems. However, opponents of the reform say it does nothing towards creating new jobs in the country and represents profound social regression.

    All in all, the threat of contagion remains an urgent problem and Europe may have to spend much more than it already did to keep all the member states funded. Europe must assure markets that such big economies as Spain (and Italy) won’t default on their debts. The euro area will likely remain in stress as contracting GDPs in peripheral countries will undermine their efforts to reduce debt and deficit ratios. To some extent, Greece’s scenario in other nations would help the currency union as it would at least lower the degree of uncertainty. Emergency financing from the European Central Bank is no more than a temporary solution. Postponing the final reckoning will only increase the economic pain and the cost of the inevitable bailouts.

  4. #43
    virtue
    Guest

    Fitch reduced UK rating forecast

    Fitch Ratings changed the forecast on Great Britain from “stable” to “negative”, indicating a “slightly greater” than 50% chance that the AAA rating will be reduced within 2 years. The verdict comes exactly one month after the rating agency Moody’s also placed the UK on negative outlook.

    Fitch is citing the weak economic recovery, high debt levels and threats from Europe’s debt crisis. Recent data showed U.K. jobless claims rose more than economists forecast in February and a broader measure of unemployment remained at the highest in 16 years, underscoring the weakness of the labor market.

    On March 21 Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will present an annual budget. Recently he offered a new plan to issue 100-year government bonds to fund the government’s debts. Most analysts said that the plan was “sensible” but that any benefit it could bring is being outweighed by QE programs.

    The U.K. deficit halved over the past two years, to 3.5% of GDP in 2011-12 from 7% of GDP in 2009-10. However, it is still higher than the average rate for the “ААА” countries.

    GBP/USD has initially dipped to $1.5635, but then returned to the upside to trade in the $1.5670 area. The pair’s facing resistance of 55- and 100-day MA. Pound has to hold above $1.5600 in order to retain chances for recovery.


  5. #44
    virtue
    Guest

    SNB stays on hold

    The Swiss National Bank kept the Libor rate unchanged in a 0.00-0.25% range at today’s meeting. The central bank also pledged to “continue to maintain liquidity on the money market at an exceptionally high level” or, in other words, to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency preventing the appreciation of the national currency. The floor for EUR/CHF was maintained at 1.20.

    Bank Sarasin: Franc buyers are still paying a premium for hedging against the risk of negative scenarios. Evidently, the nascent economic recovery and subsiding euro debt crisis have not yet eased investors’ risk aversion sufficiently.

    However, Swiss government said it expects the economy to expand 0.8% this year instead of a previously projected 0.5%. It forecast the economy to grow 1.8% in 2013. The slowdown of exports is “less marked than feared some months ago” and economic growth should gradually strengthen this year with no risk of a recession.

    Swissquote Bank: SNB is not expected to rise its ceiling anytime soon. They’re sitting back and monitoring the situation. Nobody out there signals to change the floor. They’ve convinced the market that it’s credible.

    After the SNB's announcement EUR/CHF fell by about 40 pips, but then retraced half of this decline returning to 1.2100. USD/CHF declined to the levels around 0.9270. Technical analysts at Commerzbank point that if the pair closes the day higher than 0.9317 mark, it will be able to climb to 0.9595 (Jan. maximum).

    Chart. H1 EUR/CHF


    Chart. Daily USD/CHF

  6. #45
    virtue
    Guest

    SocGen: US dollar will keep appreciating

    US dollar has strengthened since the end of February. Analysts at Societe Generale think that American currency will keep appreciating during the coming month.

    According to the bank, the possibility of further QE in the United States decreased and the greenback will be no longer used as a funding currency in carry trade. In addition, as Chinese yuan is under negative pressure due to China’s trade balance deficit posted in February, another dollar-negative factor dissolved.

    The specialists recommend selling EUR/USD in the $1.3050 area stopping at $1.3250 and targeting $1.2650.


  7. #46
    virtue
    Guest

    Westpac, ANZ: прогнозы по AUD/USD

    Analysts at Westpac believe that Aussie’s advance from the minimums in the $1.0420 region may soon lose momentum and AUD/USD may retreat to $1.0405 and $1.0372. The specialists say that the pair’s fair rate lies in the $1.0200/1.0300 range. On the other hand, any dovish signs from the Federal Reserve would make the pair rise to $1.0500/55. Aussie will also be supported if the People’s bank of China decided to reduce the RRR or conduct other stimulus measures.

    In the medium term economists at ANZ are optimistic on AUD/USD. In their view, the pair will be able to test levels in the $1.1000 area due to high commodity prices, interest rates which attract offshore investors and significant changes in the emerging market economies with regards to expanding money supplies and changing credit ratings.

    As for the longer term, the specialists see Aussie affected by the slowdown of China’s and global economic growth. In case of a modest slowdown in global economies AUD/USD could ease to $1.0350. If there’s more of the slowdown like last year or the economic performance deteriorates specifically in China, the pair may hit $0.9800.

  8. #47
    virtue
    Guest

    Danske Bank: buy EUR/GBP on the dips

    Analysts at Danske Bank recommend buying the single currency at levels around 0.8250 or when the pair EUR/GBP stabilizes.

    The specialists claim that the recent decline of EUR/GBP is a result of the pair’s strong correlation with EUR/USD and an overdue correction to recent movements in relative rates. At the same time, euro may soon rebound as the Bank of England is continuing QE and stock markets show positive dynamics.


  9. #48
    virtue
    Guest

    Westpac, ANZ: прогнозы по AUD/USD

    Analysts at Westpac believe that Aussie’s advance from the minimums in the $1.0420 region may soon lose momentum and AUD/USD may retreat to $1.0405 and $1.0372. The specialists say that the pair’s fair rate lies in the $1.0200/1.0300 range. On the other hand, any dovish signs from the Federal Reserve would make the pair rise to $1.0500/55. Aussie will also be supported if the People’s bank of China decided to reduce the RRR or conduct other stimulus measures.

    In the medium term economists at ANZ are optimistic on AUD/USD. In their view, the pair will be able to test levels in the $1.1000 area due to high commodity prices, interest rates which attract offshore investors and significant changes in the emerging market economies with regards to expanding money supplies and changing credit ratings.

    As for the longer term, the specialists see Aussie affected by the slowdown of China’s and global economic growth. In case of a modest slowdown in global economies AUD/USD could ease to $1.0350. If there’s more of the slowdown like last year or the economic performance deteriorates specifically in China, the pair may hit $0.9800.

  10. #49
    virtue
    Guest

    US TIC increase beats forecast

    Net overall capital inflows into the United States fell from December's revised inflow of $95.216 billion to $18.825 billion in January. This isn’t enough to cover the trade deficit for the month ($52.57 billion). U.S. trade gap widened in January to more than 3-year maximum of $52.6 billion.

    Net long-term capital inflows were $101.046 billion in the first month of 2012, up from purchases of USD19.1 billion in December.

    China remained the top holder of U.S. Treasuries (up by $8 billion to $1.160 trillion), but Japan may take over the first place as it continues to increase investments in U.S. debt (up by $21 billion to $1.079 trillion).

  11. #50
    virtue
    Guest

    box - einstein 250x250
    Societe Generale: comments on Swiss franc

    The Swiss National Bank increased its GDP growth forecast for 2012 from 0.5% to 1%. The central bank lowered inflation forecasts for 2012-2013 to -0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

    Analysts at Societe Generale claim that although Swiss franc is still overvalued and inflation risks are subdued, the SNB sees no reason to immediately take new initiatives to weaken the national currency.

    The specialists underline that the bullish pressure on franc has somewhat eased due to the increased liquidity in the euro area and improved risk sentiment. However, many investors still don’t dare to sell Swiss currency. A continuation of the rally in stocks and commodities alone won’t be enough to make the market players go short on franc. As a result, the prospects of EUR/CHF will depend primarily on further actions of the SNB and the ECB.

    Societe Generale don’t see how the European Central Bank will be able to take a less dovish approach amid the euro zone’s economic weakness caused by severe austerity measures. As a result, the analysts see no point in buying EUR/CHF anytime soon.

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