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Thread: FBS: Finance. Freedom. Success.

  1. #1
    Daniya FBS

    FBS: Finance. Freedom. Success.

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    Dear Forexisbiz Forum members!

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    Last edited by Daniya FBS; 11-28-2013 at 03:52 PM.

  2. Under 1st Post -dynamo
  3. #2
    Daniya FBS

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  4. #3
    Daniya FBS

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    Last edited by Daniya FBS; 11-24-2011 at 09:14 PM.

  5. #4

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  6. #5

    March 7: main economic news & events

    Australian GDP growth turned out to be lower than expected: 0.4% instead of 0.7% forecast. In the previous quarter the indicator reached 0.8%. As a consequence, the Aussie dropped testing to the level of $1.0500 before recovering to $1.0560.

    China's export and import growth is anticipated to slow to around 7% year-on-year in January-February. However, the country plans to adopt measures to help the exporters cope with difficulties such as an insufficient number of orders from elsewhere in the world, rising costs and growing trade frictions. Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said that the passage of a bill by the US Senate to empower the Department of Commerce to impose countervailing duties on Chinese imports is not in line with the rules of the World Trade Organization.

    Japan’s foreign reserves fell to $1.303 trillion at the end of February, posting the first fall in two months, as lower prices of U.S. Treasury notes offset higher gold prices. February’s reserves fell from a record high of $1.307 trillion marked at the end of January. The MOF said Japan did not intervene in the forex market between January and February.

    Japanese yen held gains from yesterday versus most of its major peers concern about Greece’s ability to complete a debt swap supported demand for the currency as a refuge. Analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui believe that USD/JPY may go down to the 80 yen level and lower. The pair dropped from March 2 maximum at 81.87 to the 80.65 yen area.

    In the UK shop price inflation edged down from 1.4% in January to 1.2% hitting its lowest level since March 2010. One of the reasons for this is that the January 2011 VAT hike has dropped out of the comparatives and in part by consumer caution. It is also important to note that the growth in permanent job placements picked up speed in February following the rise in January, which had been the first expansion since September last year. Economists say that the data point to a broad stabilization in the labor market rather than any permanent upward shift in employment.

    Greek PSI deal remains in the center of markets attention as the time given to Greece’s private creditors to decide on their voluntary participation in the debt swap runs out tomorrow.

    The euro has weakened 3% in the past six months, while the dollar has strengthened 4.4% according to Bloomberg. The yen decreased by 2.3%.

    Events to watch

    At 8:00 a.m. GMT watch SNB’s foreign currency reserves data. The increase of reserves might be franc-negative.

    In the United States one should pay attention to ADP February Non-Farm employment change at 1:30 p.m. GMT (jobs growth’s expected, this index may provide some hints at Friday’s NFP data which is released by the US Labor Department) and January building permits (negative projection). The country is also to publish revised data on non-farm productivity and labor costs, which are important inflationary indicators, and a report on crude oil stockpiles.

  7. #6

    EUR/USD managed to recover a bit

    he single currency rebounded today from the minimums in the $1.3111 area.

    Analysts at Forecast Pte note that the market’s speculation about barrier options with a $1.3100 knock-out strike. Holders of these options appear to be buying the euro in order to protect themselves.

    Knock-out option is an option with a built-in mechanism to expire if a specified price level is passed. Such option sets a floor or cap to the level which an option can reach in favor of the holder. As knock options limits the profit potential for the option buyer.

  8. #7

    Westpac: recommendations for AUD/USD

    Technical analysts at Westpac note that Australian dollar has finally breached its sideways trend as it dipped below $1.6000. The specialists believe that Aussie’s fair value is in the area of parity with its US counterpart.

    The bank recommends selling AUD/USD on the rallies to $1.0600. The pair may return to this level helped by global risk appetite. The specialists expect Australian currency to decline to $1.0300/1.0400 in several weeks.

    The argument in favor of selling AUD is that the Federal Reserve didn’t hint on more QE. In addition, the analysts observe that Japanese retail investors show no sign of rebuilding their unusually low AUD/JPY long positions after they have taken profits on AUD/JPY’s advance in the first 2 months of the year.

    However, for the pair to fall lower, to $1.0200, there should be some really negative news such as Greece’s default.

  9. #8

    What to expect from the BoE's meeting?

    The next Bank of England's policy meeting will be held on March 8. Many analysts believe that the asset purchase target is likely to be left unchanged at £325 billion this year and a rate cut is not on the agenda.

    According to the forecasts, the first rate hike will be delivered only in February 2014. "With the housing market and wider economy looking weak, there is actually very little scope for raising interest rates as it would almost certainly trigger a double-dip recession," said Phil McHugh, an analyst at trading group Currencies Direct.

    Despite the fact that two MPC members wanted to raise quantitative easing purchases by additional £25 billion last month, economists no longer expect any more QE. The shift in forecasts is partly due to the signs the economy is growing modestly after contracting late last year, reduced concerns about Greece's debt crisis and a surge in oil prices.

    The MPC’s main task is to use monetary policy tools to try and keep Britain's annual inflation rate close to a government-set target of 2.0%. The latest data showed that Britain's 12-month inflation rate fell sharply in January from 4.2% to 3.6%.

    "Most policymakers would probably view the high oil price as likely to have a clear negative impact on growth given weak consumer demand, and thus overall put downward pressure on inflation over the next 2-3 years," said BNP Paribas economist David Tinsley.

    Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said last week that UK inflation may prove more persistent than expected, hinting that it is unlikely the economy will require a further stimulus once the current round of asset purchases ends. This is by far the most explicit indication by an official that the MPC's £50bn increase in stimulus in February could be the last.

    However, the economy is recovering only slowly and unemployment remains too high. Inflation is coming down and the main projection is still for CPI to fall below the 2% target level by the end of the year.

    British economy shrank 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the third, according to recent official data. A further contraction in the first quarter would place Britain back in recession.

  10. #9

    GBP/USD: technical comments

    British pound fell yesterday versus the greenback sliding from the levels around $1.5880 to $1.5700. Earlier it failed to overcome $1.6000 level and make a sustainable breakthrough above 200-day MA.

    Sterling got under pressure as the markets were in the risk-off mode because of the uncertainty caused by Greece’s deal with private creditors and the reduction of China’s GDP estimate.

    Today risk-related currencies including sterling managed to move higher as investors were taking profit on safe havens.

    GBP/USD was able to consolidate above $1.5700 (100-day MA). Bearish pressure on sterling will ease if it closes the day above this level. Otherwise, the pair will risk falling to $1.5666 (55-day MA) and $1.5645 (February minimums, strong support). Below the latter, pound will get vulnerable for a decline to $1.5500.

    Technical analysts at MIG Bank think that the outlook for the British currency will remain negative as long as it’s trading below $1.5880. If GBP/USD ultimately overcomes this point, it will get chance to rise to $1.5992 (February 29 maximum) and $1.6165 (October 31 maximum).

  11. #10

    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    BNP Paribas on ECB’s and BoE’s policy

    Analysts at BNP Paribas expect the European Central Bank to adopt a 'wait and see' approach. In their view, evaluation of the LTRO effects will take time. If the financial conditions significantly ease, the ECB may decide to leave interest rate unchanged at 1%.

    As for the Bank of England, it may keep the rates at the current minimal level of 0.5% until the euro zone debt crisis is over. According to BNP Paribas, this is unlikely to happen earlier than in 2013. In addition, the specialists assume that as the PMIs and CBI show that economic activity in the UK will be at least as strong as the MPC's latest forecast suggests, the central bank won’t expand its asset purchase program either.

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