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Thread: Market Analysis and trade recomendations by FBS

  1. #41
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    EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Jan. 10)

    Daily. The pair started the year with a decline. The strengthening of the US dollar contributed to the fall of the currency pair to the upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud. Senkou Span B supported euro at $1.3560 – the pair was consolidating above this point last week. Short-term outlook turned bearish as Tenkan and Kijun formed a “dead cross” (C). However, pay attention to the fact that the Kijun-Sen (KS) went up immediately after the intersection. This may mean a recovery in the near term. Also note that the Ichimoku Cloud is still positive.


    Chart. Daily EUR/USD

    H4. The trend turned bearish at H4. The prices fell and Tenkan-sen and Kijun formed a “dead cross” (C), which is still relevant after almost two weeks. Ichimoku Cloud turned bearish. This indicates that the bears are gaining power. Nevertheless, the support at $1.3560 doesn’t give them the opportunity to continue the decline. During the last day the pair returned to the Tenkan and Kijun lines. If the prices fix above Kijun, they may rise to the lower boundary of the Cloud.


    Chart. H4 EUR/USD

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  3. #42
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    GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis (Jan. 10)

    Daily. During the past week GBP/USD managed to regain a bit the lost ground. Kijun-sen (KS) acted as support, which stopped the corrective decline at $1.6400. Note that a local minimum was formed a lower, in the $1.6340 area. Thus, the upward trend remains in both the short- and long-term prospects. A “golden cross” (C) is still in place. The Ichimoku cloud is bullish. If the prices fix above Tenkan, the bulls will continue purchases.


    Chart. Daily GBP/USD

    H4. At H4 the picture is not that smooth. After the pair recovered to the upper boundary of the Cloud, it found resistance at $1.6500. It may be difficult for the prices to break higher as Chinkou Span is in the overbought area. So, in the short term we can expect the depreciation to Tenkan after another attempt to get above $1.6500.


    Chart. H4 GBP/USD

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    Jan. 15: Asian session

    Asian shares were mostly higher on Wednesday as the World Bank upgraded its outlook for the global economy. US dollar extended gains versus its counterparts due to surprising strength in US consumer spending. Japanese Nikkei bounced by 1.8% after suffering its sharpest daily drop in 5 months on Tuesday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed.

    USD/JPY recovered to 104.40. AUD/USD slid to $0.8915. NZD/USD slipped to $0.8333.

    EUR/USD fell to $1.3630. GBP/USD is trading at $1.6422.

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    Jan. 17: Asian session

    Asian stocks swung between gains and losses before China reports economic data next week. Nikkei fell by 0.8% following Wall Street lower on the disappointing US corporate earnings, while exporters sagged as the weak-yen trend took a pause. MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased a 0.4% drop.

    USD/JPY is trading at 104.33 after testing 104.92 yesterday. Japanese consumer confidence declined. AUD/USD is consolidating in a tight $0.8830/00 range after having hit a low of $0.8878 yesterday (lowest since August 2010). NZD/USD is the main loser of this Asian session, falling by more than 60 pips to $0.8285. Despite the recent NZD decline, the market remains generally long on the kiwi in expectations of RBNZ rate hike in the near future.

    EUR/USD is in the $1.3625 area, down from yesterday’s high at $1.3649. GBP/USD is down to $1.6333, but above yesterday’s low at $1.6314.

  6. #45
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    FBS Forex Outlook 2014

    FBS analytical team prepared a report on 2014 Forex market prospects. What currency pairs deserve traders’ attention in the coming year? Which economic and political events will influence the market? What to expect from the major central banks? Find the answers to these questions and many more in the FBS Forex Outlook 2014.

    Contents:
    * 2013: A year to remember
    * 2014: Highlights
    * Analysis by currency

    [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]


  7. #46
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    Jan. 20: Asian session

    Asian shares dropped to a 6-month low as a bit better China GDP was not enough to overcome risk aversion. Q4 GDP grew by 7.7% (down from 7.8% of Q3, but barely above the forecast of 7.6%). China December industrial production rose by 9.7% y/y (slightly below the expected 9.8%) while retail sales climbed 13.6% as expected. Nikkei index dropped to a one-week low, tracking declines in US shares. MSCI Asia Pacific has pared some losses, but is still down by 0.2%. Market liquidity is thin as the US markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

    USD/JPY found support at 103.90 after a sell-off in the Asian trade. AUD/USD has recovered a bit after hitting $0.8760 (lowest since July 2010). Aussie is slightly supported by China GDP figures. NZD/USD is trading in a narrow $0.8265/30 range.

    EUR/USD is hovering in the $1.3510/30 range, a little bit below the Friday low. GBP/USD is trading around $1.6415.

  8. #47
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    EUR/USD with Commerzbank

    Analysts at Commerzbank point out that EUR/USD eroded 6-month uptrend and the Ichimoku Cloud support at $1.3564. The specialists say that the 4-month support line at $1.3516 has become vulnerable. If euro falls below this level, it will make another leg lower.

    The bank has set targets at $1.3348/1.3295 (recent low, Fibo and 200-day MA). Support lies at $1.3525 (Dec, 2 low) and $1.3458 (38.2% retracement of the move up from July). The pair will consolidate at the latter. Resistance is at $1.3607/29 (short term downtrend).


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    Jan. 22: Asian session

    Asian shares swung between gains and losses as the Bank of Japan pledged to maintain economic stimulus and the International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1%. Japanese Nikkei rose by 0.3% after an initial dip. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.7%.

    USD/JPY rose to 104.50. The Bank of Japan has refrained from signaling additional stimulus today. The regulator downgraded the nation’s GDP forecast for 2014/2015 financial year from 1.5% to 1.4%. The BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda is due to hold a press conference later today.

    AUD/USD jumped by more than 80 pips to $0.8870 on higher than expected Australia inflation data. Q4 CPI came at 0.8% q/q vs. expected is 0.4% and prior 1.2%. January Westpac consumer sentiment fell less than expected (-1.7% vs. -4.8% in December). Market expectations of RBA rate cut fell after the today’s releases. NZD/USD is trading in a narrow $0.8300/25 range.

    EUR/USD tested $1.3580 before sliding to $1.3560. GBP/USD reached $1.6490.

  10. #49
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    Jan. 27: Asian session

    USD/JPY tested 7-week low at 101.75, but then recovered to 102.50. Demand for yen as a safe haven increased because of a selloff in emerging-market assets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of shares fell 1.2%, extending last week’s 2.3% slump. Investors are worried that troubles in EM could lead to financial crisis. Turkey suffers from political turmoil, while Argentina abandoned support of its peso on the open market. The expectations of the Fed’s policy tightening and tightening credit conditions in China also encourage fears about the EM economic slowdown.

    Commodity currencies met buyers in the Asian trade. AUD/USD opened the week slightly above the Friday’s minimum of $0.8660 and strengthened to $0.8740. Australian markets were closed for a holiday. NZD/USD still didn’t close the morning a bearish gap, trading below $0.8225. Kiwi remains well-supported by the $0.8200 mark. On Sunday Forbes published an article saying China halts cash transfers. However, the PBOC statement clarified the issue: the move only covers some Internet transfers and those for small amounts and is due to regular system maintenance.

    EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3680 area after it spiked to $1.3740 on Friday. GBP/USD tested $1.6472, but then returned to the levels above $1.6500.

  11. #50
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    Jan. 28: Asian session

    Asian shares weakened to nearly 5-month lows on Tuesday on concerns about the emerging markets, but then managed to recover on some encouraging news from Turkey and China. Turkey’s central bank may raise interest rates at an extraordinary meeting today, while China’s largest lender said that investors in a troubled high-yield trust can recoup funds. Nikkei hit 2 1/2-month intraday low before recouping the losses to trade 0.2% above its previous close. MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares was little changed after dropping 3.7% over the previous 3 days.

    USD/JPY is trading in the 102.60 area, below yesterday’s peak at 102.93. The greenback rose against yen before the Fed begins a 2-day meeting amid forecasts it will cut monthly asset purchases by $10 billion.

    Commodity currencies are trading to the upside. AUD/USD extends growth for a second day in a row, but faced resistance at $0.8800. Australia NAB business confidence for December came at 6. The prior reading was revised up from 5 to 6. Business conditions index for December rose from -3 to a 2.5-year high of 4. NZD/USD strengthened to $0.8275 after forming a long-legged doji candle with a low at $0.8200 on Monday.

    EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3670 area, below yesterday’s peak at $1.3717. GBP/USD rose above $1.6600.

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