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Thread: Market Analysis and trade recomendations by FBS

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    Thumbs up Market Analysis and trade recomendations by FBS

    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    Dear members, we will provide you the latest economy reviews, market news and trade recommendations in this thread.

    Please, follow our Analytics and trade recomendations and you will be informed about Forex actualities. Hope, our reviews will help you to increase the efficiency of your trading!

    If you have any questions please feel free to ask here in this thread.

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    Technicals for majors

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD breached support at $1.3705 on the news that the Fed will taper QE.

    The pair fell below 55-period MA and is trading in the area of the100-period one. The lines went from rising to the horizontal state.
    The prices are at the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) which is currently providing support. Failure here will be a bearish signal. The bullish Cloud itself has dramatically narrowed.
    MACD went to the negative territory. RSI is currently signaling oversold.
    Support: $1.3666, $1.3648, $1.3625 and $1.3575

    Resistance: $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790


    Chart. H4 EUR/USD

    Upcoming events:

    EUR - 9:00 GMT - Current Account

    EUR - All Day - European Council meeting (banking union discussion)

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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    GBP/USD

    Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. Cable is consolidating around $1.6380 after having jumped to $1.6485 post the Fed’s announcement. We remain bullish for the pair as long as it holds above $1.6320.

    The cable broke above the bearish channel.
    H4 MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
    Cable rose above the 100- and 55- period MAs.
    Ichimoku Cloud is also giving out bullish signals.
    Support: $1.6340, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo), $1.6215

    Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500

    Chart. H4 GBP/USD

    Upcoming events:

    GBP - 9:30 GMT – Retails sales

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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    USD/JPY

    Bulls have regained control over the pair: USD/JPY rose by almost 200 pips yesterday, touching a new 5-year high of 104.40.The bullish impulse slowed at these levels, resulting in another wave of bearish correction.

    • USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku with Kijun-sen crossing the Tenkan-sen to the upside.

    • Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50).

    • MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).

    • Sentiment remains bullish as long as the 103.75 support holds.

    Support: 103.75, 103.40, 102.50

    Resistance: 104.40, 105.00, 105.55


    Chart. Daily USD/JPY

    Upcoming events:

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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    USD/CHF

    Bearish pressure on USD/CHF eased as the pair rose from the 2-year low of 0.8832 to 0.8960.

    The pair broke into the wide bearish Ichimoku and is trading not far from the Cloud resistance now (0.8975).
    MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
    The price rose above the 55-period MA that acted as a resistance, but met sellers at the 100-period MA
    Buyers need a break above the 0.8960/75 resistance to move further
    Support: 0.8930, 0.8920, 0.8900

    Resistance: 0.8960/75, 0.9000, 0.9030

    Chart. Daily USD/CHF

    Upcoming events:

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

    CHF - 14:00 GMT - SNB Quarterly Bulletin

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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    AUD/USD

    AUD/USD renewed this year’s low by sliding to $0.8821. Aussie was already quite oversold, so here we didn’t see such a big decline as in other pairs.

    The pair is at the lower Bollinger band and there’s still a small divergence in MACD/RSI, so we expect some correction up.
    All MAs are declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
    The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. The indicator lines went horizontal, so we may see some consolidation.
    Support: $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755

    Resistance: $0.8880, $0.8900, $0.8970, $0.9000

    Chart. H4 AUD/USD

    Upcoming events:

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD reached the highest level since 2010 at 1.0725. The medium-term uptrend continues.

    100- and 50-period MAs turned a bit up. The lines are melded together. So far 50-period MA hasn’t fallen below the 100-period one.
    RSI (14) is still in the overbought area above 70. The pair’s above the upper Bollinger band.
    The prices rose above the Ichimoku Cloud which has turned bullish. The Cloud, however, is thin and the indicator lines went horizontal.
    Resistance: 1.0725, 1.0745, 1.0800 (38.2% of the decline from 2008 to 2011)

    Support: 1.0700, 1.0670, 1.0635


    Chart. H4 USD/CAD

    Upcoming events:

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

    USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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    Dec. 19: Asian session

    US dollar gave back some of the gains it made yesterday as the Fed said it would start tapering QE.

    USD/JPY corrected a bit from more than 5-year high at 104.36, but is still trading above 104.00. Japanese Nikkei share average jumped by 1.5% this morning. Data on Japan buying foreign bonds showed continued outflow of money from Japan.

    Australian and New Zealand dollars came under pressure as Fed announced tapering. AUD/USD fell to$0.8820, its lowest level since August 2010, but has recovered some ground later. The pair sits at the $0.8850 August 2013 lows as of writing. NZD/USD fell to $0.8175 despite the better-than-expected New Zealand GDP. NZ economy rose by 1.4% q/q in Q3 vs. expected +1.1% and prior +0.3%.

    EUR/USD slipped to $1.3648. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6370 area after peaking to $1.6484 yesterday.

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    Key currency options (Dec. 19)

    Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

    Here are the key options expiring today:

    EUR/USD: $1.3500 (large), $1.3530, $1.3540, $1.3670, $1.3770, $1.3780;

    GBP/USD: $1.6400;

    USD/JPY: 103.00 (large), 103.50, 103.70;

    AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large); $0.8900 (large); $0.8950, $0.9050 (large);

    USD/CAD: 1.0595.

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    box - einstein 250x250
    Dec. 20: Asian session

    Asian stocks fell, led by Chinese shares amid concern funding costs for the nation’s lenders will remain high even after the central bank injected cash into the financial system. Japanese Nikkei 225 edged down as investors booked profits before the long weekend in Japan.

    USD/JPY rose to 104.45. Yen declined after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and voted unanimously to maintain its pledge of increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the central bank, at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen ($576 billion) to 70 trillion yen. But the BOJ slightly tweaked its view on the outlook to signal that it was mindful of the potential pain on the economy from an increase in the national sales tax in April next year. Investors are now waiting for Governor Kuroda’s comments on how the Fed’s tapering could affect the BOJ's decision on if and when it might next expand stimulus.

    AUD/USD tested $0.8889, but then returned to $0.8870. NZD/USD tested $0.8712, but then returned by 20 pips lower.

    EUR/USD slid to $1.3631. GBP/USD is trading a bit on the downside, in the $1.6360 area.

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