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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #11
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    Forex Technical Analysis: The bulls may give back some of their gains

    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar weakened substantially against the Euro as the US Retail Sales showed a decrease of consumer spending, allowing the pair to climb for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair moved back above 1.3650, continuing the bullish impulse seen in the beginning of the week; however price is showing signs of rejection judging by the long upper wicks of the candles and strong resistance is ahead (1.3710). We are neutral on the pair but consider that a successful re-test of the recently broken level will bring the pair into 1.3710 resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Early at 07:00 am GMT the German Gross Domestic Product is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.6% to 1.3%. Such an increase will most likely strengthen the Euro as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. Later in the day at 2:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually has a strong impact on the pair. The expected figure is 80.6, an almost insignificant increase from the previous 80.4.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound continued to gain against the greenback and the important resistance located at 1.6600 was broken relatively easy.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s climb stopped in the resistance zone created around 1.6665 and a retracement lower is still anticipated, considering the severe overbought condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index. Without a doubt the bulls are in control but a retracement is needed before the pair can move into the resistance located at 1.6750. If a move into the mentioned resistance occurs, we don’t expect it to be completed today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so price action will be influenced by the US events and by the technical aspect of the market.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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  3. #12
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    The Forex Market: Markets react to the Euro Group Meetings

    EUR/USD


    The Forex Market: Friday the US posted mixed data but overall the Dollar is weakening and this combined with better than anticipated German Gross Domestic Product generated another bullish move which took price into resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair finished last week right on the important resistance located at 1.3710 and the Relative Strength Index just touched the 70 level, showing signs of an overbought market. These factors make us believe that today price may stall or retrace lower but the market can remain overbought for an extended period of time so further bullish advances are not out of the question.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Euro Group meetings take place today and are attended by personalities from the political and financial scene. The meetings are usually closed to the press but officials often speak with journalists during the day and this can generate volatility and sharp moves, depending on the matters discussed. The US Banks will be closed in celebration of Presidents’ Day so the New York session may be characterized by irregular movement.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound showed tremendous strength against its counterpart and Friday the pair climbed for the fourth consecutive day on the back of speculation about a potential interest rate hike.



    Technical Outlook

    Price rocketed Friday and the important resistance located at 1.6750 was touched, setting the scene for a bounce-or-break scenario. Without a doubt the bulls are in control of the market but the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is showing a severe overbought condition. This fact, combined with the strength of the current level may finally generate a retracement lower which will most likely be followed by a move higher.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for today so price action will be driven mostly by the technical aspect of the market.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  4. #13
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    Forex News: Resuming bullish price action?

    EUR/USD


    Forex News:Yesterday the pair ranged for almost the entire day and the Euro Group meetings didn’t do much to change this behavior. Resistance is still holding and price is trading very close to it.



    Technical Outlook


    Recent price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction but the resistance located at 1.3710 is still holding. However, this resistance level didn’t reject strong movement and it didn’t generate a bounce lower so we consider that it is pretty fragile and can be broken by a bullish impulse. Important data is released today so a direction will probably be established.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, with an anticipated decrease from the previous 61.7 to 61.3. The importance of this survey comes from the fact that it is derived from the opinions of about 275 German institutional investors and professional analysts who are asked to rate the 6 month outlook for the German economy. Due to the nature of their jobs, they are highly informed about the economic situation and can give an accurate assessment. Usually, better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    Pound’s strength took the pair above the resistance located at 1.6750 but yesterday the much anticipated retracement lower finally occurred and the bears made their presence known.



    Technical Outlook

    The uptrend is still very strong and yesterday’s move lower is considered just a retracement which cleared the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, not a reversal. We expect trend resumption today but if price will stop in the resistance zone (1.6750), then maybe the strength of the bulls is exhausted and the bears will take over. The first potential support is located at 1.6665 and may push price higher if touched.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and it is also taken into consideration by the Bank of England when the interest rate decision is made. Values of the CPI which exceed a certain range may determine the BoE to adjust rates and although the current value of 2.0% is not expected to change today, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release; usually higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  5. #14
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    The Forex Market: Fed and BoE Meeting Minutes – the day’s headlines

    EUR/USD


    The Forex Market: Despite a worse than expected value of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and resistance was broken decisively.



    Technical Outlook

    The decisive break of 1.3710 resistance confirms the strength of the bulls and the fact that the pair is in trading in an uptrend. This makes 1.3830 the next major resistance and target but we must note the fact that the Relative Strength Index surpassed the 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the market. Of course, this condition doesn’t mean that a retracement will occur right away but further advances may be more difficult. The broken resistance located at 1.3710 is likely to turn into support if price will reach it again.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The US Producer Price Index is released today at 1:30 pm GMT; the indicator shows the change in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and usually higher values strengthen the US Dollar due to inflationary implications (eventually a higher price charged by producers will be passed on to the consumer). For today’s release, analysts expect a decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.2%.

    Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT, the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons which influenced the Rate decision. Volatility will most likely be present at the time of the release.


    GBP/USD

    United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising decrease to 1.9% from the anticipated 2.0%, a fact which weakened the Pound against its counterpart and allowed the pair to move lower.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair touched support at 1.6665 and now looks prepared for another bullish push towards 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition and allows moves higher but a fall below 1.6600 would shift the balance of power in favor of the bears. Today’s price action will be highly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom releases the Claimant Count Change at 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous -24.0K to -18.3K, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound since the indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will contain a breakdown of the members’ votes regarding the interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  6. #15
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    The Forex Market: Approaching support levels – a good place for trend resumption

    EUR/USD


    The Forex Market: Yesterday’s price action was mixed and rather ranging until the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes which generated a move lower which was not characterized by a strong or immediate continuation.



    Technical Outlook

    The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index was cleared by yesterday’s move lower but now an encounter with the level of 1.3710 is very probable. If this touch occurs, price is likely to bounce higher, continuing the latest bullish momentum. Moves below 1.3710 would indicate that the power of the bulls is fading and would make 1.3650 the next target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Early at 08:00 am GMT the German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released, with an almost insignificant decrease being anticipated: 56.4 from the previous 56.5. The indicator is derived from the opinions of managers from the manufacturing sector and it’s a leading sign of economic health so better numbers strengthen the Euro. At the same time the French Manufacturing PMI is released and it’s anticipated to increase from the previous 49.3 to 49.6. Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US will announce the Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge and usually strengthens the US Dollar if higher than anticipated values are posted. Today’s expected value is 1.6% while the previous was 1.5%.


    GBP/USD

    Before the FOMC Minutes, the pair tested 1.6665 support zone once again but bounced higher and the FOMC Minutes failed to trigger a break of support or a significant move higher.



    Technical Outlook

    If the bearish impulse generated by yesterday’s US events cannot take price below 1.6665, we are likely to see higher prices. The pair already tested this support twice and didn’t succeed to break it so another failed attempt would increase the probability of uptrend resumption. Moves lower will shift the medium term balance of power in the favor of the bears only if 1.6600 is broken.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 11:00 am GMT the United Kingdom announces the Industrial Order Expectations which are expected to increase from the previous -2 to 6, a fact which would fuel bullish movement but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market. Of course the US Consumer Price Index will directly affect the pair’s movement.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  7. #16
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    Forex News: European data likely to generate the day’s bias

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The worse than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales contributed to the US Dollar weakness seen Friday but similar to the pair’s behavior throughout the rest of the week, the move up lacked strength and price didn’t continue in the same direction afterwards.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is trading between the support located at 1.3710 and the minor resistance formed around 1.3770 and today we anticipate a break of either one of these two levels. However, recent price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future movement so an accurate assessment is difficult to give but the medium term control belongs to the bulls.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The German Business Climate survey is released at 09:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 110.7, a small increase from the previous 110.6. The importance of the survey comes from its large sample size of about 7,000 businesses and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the single currency.

    An hour later the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is announced but no change is anticipated from the current 0.7%. The CPI is used by the Central Bank as a gauge of inflation and a value outside a certain range would determine a rate adjustment; usually higher values strengthen the Euro, taking the pair north.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair had one of the hardest to trade days in a long while. Price moved up and down many times and almost the entire trading session was characterized by sharp reversals on the lower time frames.



    Technical Outlook

    The Pound is weakened by disappointing economic data and we expect moves lower. However, the first barrier in front of falling prices is 1.6600, a level which is not confirmed support because it didn’t reject prices higher on previous occasions. Today’s price action will show if this level is indeed support but nonetheless, a move below it would indicate that bears are starting to gain strength and would make 1.6440 the next target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day so price direction will be mostly driven by the technical aspect of the market.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  8. #17
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    Forex News: A breakout is highly expected

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Both the German Business Climate and the Euro Zone CPI came out slightly better than anticipated but apparently the market participants expected better numbers so the actual values came as a disappointment.



    Technical Outlook

    The anticipated break of the resistance located at 1.3770 or the support located at 1.3710 didn’t occur and in fact both of them were touched almost to the pip. The market is deciding the next move and today we are likely to see the result but at the moment nothing is clear. The strength of the bulls is starting to fade away and the breakout we mentioned will most likely decide the day’s direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The main event of the day is the release of the US Consumer Confidence which is a leading indicator of consumer spending as confident consumers are more likely to spend more, hence boosting the economy. The release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and a decrease to 80.2 from the previous 80.7 is anticipated; better numbers usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound continued to lose ground yesterday against the US Dollar as signs of economic contraction are starting to appear. However, in the second part of yesterday’s trading session the Pound recovered the losses.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair had yesterday another trading session characterized by indecision and sharp reversals. Today we expect a break of either support or resistance. The optimism that surrounded the Pound lately is starting to fade so our bias is slightly bearish for the day, anticipating a break of the support located at 1.6600.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 09:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association releases the Mortgage Approvals, an indicator which shows the number of mortgages approved for home purchases. The expected figure is 47.9, an increase from the previous 46.5 and usually a better than anticipated value strengthens the Pound. Of course the US release mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  9. #18
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    Forex News: A clear move is still anticipated

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Surprisingly the pair remained inside the range for another day and price action was characterized by sharp reversals and whipsaws on the lower time frames. US data came our worse than expected, a fact which only created more difficult trading conditions.



    Technical Outlook

    Until a clear, decisive breakout occurs, we have a neutral bias on this pair. Lower time frames such as 15 and 5 minutes are extremely hard to trade and all moves are almost immediately reversed. Resistance still sits at 1.3770, a level which gains more and more strength, while support is located at 1.3710.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day lacks major indicators but the most important one is the release of the US New Home Sales. The indicator offers insights into the US housing market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if better numbers are posted. For today’s release (scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT), analysts expect a decrease from the previous 414K to 406K.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound strengthened throughout the day against the greenback but the release of the US Consumer Confidence created a “V” shaped pattern which probably took out a lot of Stop Loss orders and created a choppy trading environment.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the pair moved above the resistance located at 1.6665, the four hour candles show indecision and even rejection (long upper wicks), a fact which makes us believe this is not a valid breakout. We are neutral on this pair as well but the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. The fundamental aspect will play a major role in today’s developments, overshadowing the technical factors.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The release of United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product is the headline of the day. Scheduled at 09:30 am GMT, the GDP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% but a surprise would create a lot of turmoil in the market. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and has the capability to influence the pair’s movement drastically. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound and will most likely strengthen it, driving the pair higher; the opposite applies for a lower value of the GDP and of course, the US data will be an important factor for today’s price action.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  10. #19
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    Forex News: US fundamental events steal the headlines once again

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Dollar strengthened against the Euro throughout yesterday’s trading session as the US New Home Sales posted a much better than anticipated value, increasing optimism that Fed will continue to taper the monetary stimulus.



    Technical Outlook

    The decisive break of 1.3710 to the down side signifies a major victory for the bears and maybe more important than that, it suggests that the ranging period is over. A re-test from below is possible, especially considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index is approaching an oversold condition but for now the control belongs to the bears and we are likely to see moves lower.

    Fundamental Outlook


    At 1:00 pm GMT the German Consumer Price Index is released but no change is anticipated from the current 1.3%. This is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value usually strengthens the Euro because the German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone. The US Durable Goods Orders are released at 1:30 pm GMT and a big change is expected from the previous -4.2% to -1.6%. More orders for durable goods suggest that manufacturers will increase their activity to satisfy demand and normally this strengthens the US Dollar.

    Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The focus will be on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and after reading a prepared statement, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by the Committee members. This second part is likely to generate the most volatility and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


    GBP/USD

    The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom surprisingly dropped yesterday to 2.7% from the previous 2.8%, weakening the Pound and allowing moves lower.



    Technical Outlook


    Although UK data was disappointing and US data better than anticipated, the pair didn’t travel a huge distance to the south so we cannot consider the bears to be in control. However, 1.6665 support was broken yesterday and if a re-test generates a move lower which will break 1.6600 support, the bias changes to bearish. Of course, 1.6600 may be broken even without a re-test of 1.6665 and moves to the north are not out of the question either.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so the main focus will be on the US events and on the technical aspect.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  11. #20
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    Forex News: Dollar strength affected by the US Gross Domestic Product

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was characterized by Euro weakness mainly due to the lower than anticipated German CPI but once disappointing US data came out, the pair climbed to touch the previously broken level of 1.3710.



    Technical Outlook

    At the moment the pair is testing from below the broken level of 1.3710 and if this test results in a bounce lower, it means that we are dealing with previous support turned resistance. This fact would indicate that bears are indeed in control of the pair’s short to medium term movement and we are likely to see a break of yesterday’s lowest point (1.3643). Otherwise, the next resistance is located at 1.3770 and might be the pair’s next target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer price Index Estimate is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.7%. Higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the European economy and have the potential to take the pair higher. However, the most important event of the day is the release of the US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The anticipated value is 2.6%, a decrease from the previous 3.2%; lower numbers suggest an economic contraction and are perceived as detrimental for the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a choppy trading session which started with the bears being in control but finished higher, above 1.6665. Overall it was a difficult day for trading on the lower time frames.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair remains in a range, moving above and below 1.6665 and we maintain our neutral bias until a clear move occurs. For the moment the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. Until the pair breaks decisively either one of them, the ranging movement will continue.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak today at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt. The event is scheduled at 3:30 pm GMT and is likely to create volatility, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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