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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #21
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    Forex News: Mario Draghi testifies Ė waiting for the marketís reaction

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the bulls scored the biggest victory of last week by taking the pair close to the major resistance located at 1.3830 on the back of a better than anticipated European CPI and a disappointing US Gross Domestic Product.



    Technical Outlook

    As mentioned before, a crucial resistance sits in front of rising prices and we have already seen signs of rejection on a four hour chart. The Relative Strength Index is indicating an overbought market and itís likely for the pair to pull back to 1.3770 before further advances to the upside can be made. The technical side of the market will be somewhat secondary and all eyes will be on Mario Draghiís testimony.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The most important event of the day is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The president will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and we expect a lot of strong moves to occur at the time, depending on his attitude. Whipsaws and sharp reversals are a distinct possibility so we recommend caution if trading during the testimony. The US Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected increase from the previous 51.3 to 52.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback if it were to come true or if even higher numbers will be posted.


    GBP/USD

    The worse than expected US Gross Domestic Product allowed the pair to climb higher during Fridayís trading session. Price action was rather choppy on the lower time frames but the day was bullish nonetheless.



    Technical Outlook

    As we mentioned last week, we are neutral on the pair until a clear break of either support (1.6600) or resistance (1.6750) occurs. The bulls had a good run Friday but resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible. If this occurs, the first level of importance to the down side is 1.6665; on the other hand, a break of resistance would have to be confirmed by a re-test unless the move up is a very strong one.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT and a small increase is anticipated from the previous 56.7 to 56.9. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector, better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  2. Under 1st Post -dynamo
  3. #22
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    Forex News: Support levels are targeted

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Surprisingly, the market didnít react almost at all during Mario Draghiís testimony which took place yesterday in Brussels. Although the presidentís comments were rather positive regarding the lending situation in Europe, the single currency didnít strengthen as estimated.



    Technical Outlook

    Fridayís top couldnít be surpassed yesterday and it appears as the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index combined with the strength of 1.3830 resistance are setting the stage for a reversal. Even if signs of lower prices are present in the market, the pair is still under the control of the bulls from a medium term perspective so another push towards 1.3830 is very possible. However, we consider 1.3710 to be the first lower target. Note that the week opened with a gap lower and more often than not these gaps are filled so we might see price move to the upper part of the gap today or in the days to come, especially if 1.3710 is touched and manages to push the pair higher.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The release of the Spanish Unemployment Change is the only noteworthy event of the day. The estimated value is 74.2K, a decrease from the previous 113.1K; usually lower than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro as less unemployed people are a sign of a thriving economy. However, the event is considered to have a medium impact on the pairís movement.


    GBP/USD

    The British Manufacturing PMI met analystsí forecast and posted a value of 56.9, a fact which didnít create surprising moves but allowed the pair to have a bearish day following a bounce off 1.6750 resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is trading close to the level of 1.6665 and it looks like the bulls donít have the power needed to push price above 1.6750. Even if we still maintain a neutral stance until either 1.6750 or 1.6600 is broken, we believe that a touch of the mentioned support is very likely if 1.6665 is broken to the downside. A break-or-bounce scenario will unfold if the pair touches 1.6600 support and the result will most likely influence the medium term outlook.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Construction PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from the previous 64.6 to 63.6. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  4. #23
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    Forex News: Support still holding but uncertainty rules the market

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday we had a rather mixed trading session, with price reversing direction several times, a fact which generated a difficult trade environment. Tensions in Ukraine added to the lack of clear direction.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the pair made a run for the support located at 1.3710, this level couldnít be touched and the bulls took price higher for a re-test of the recently broken level of 1.3770. This re-test and the bounce lower that followed confirm the fact that now 1.3770 is resistance once again and moves to the south are a distinct possibility. However, the first support is located pretty close to current price and may reject price if touched, especially if the Relative Strength Index will indicate an oversold condition at the time.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Early at 08:15 am GMT the Spanish Services PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from the previous 54.9 to 55.3. Half an hour later the Italian Services PMI is released and anticipated to increase from 49.4 to 50.6. Since both are leading indicators of health for the services sector in their respective countries, better than expected values usually strengthen the Euro but they are not considered high impact indicators.

    Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the US Non Farm Employment Change will be announced by Automatic Data Processing Inc.; although this release doesnít have such a huge impact as the government indicator with the same name which comes out two days later, it has the potential to influence the market, especially if a surprising number is posted. The estimate is 159K, a decrease from the previous 175K and usually higher numbers are beneficial for the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    The British Construction PMI came out worse than estimated, a fact which reversed a previous rally seen early yesterday on the lower time frames and triggered a slow decline for the rest of the day. However, the pair couldnít move decisively away from 1.6665.



    Technical Outlook

    No clear developments took place yesterday and currently the pair is trading close to 1.6665, a level which seems to attract price more and more recently. There are no clear signs of control exhibited by either bulls or bears and price action remains mixed until a break of 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support occurs.

    Fundamental Outlook

    United Kingdomís Services Purchasing Managersí Index is released today at 09:30 am GMT with a small decrease anticipated from the previous 58.3 to 58.0. Since this is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and also a leading indicator of economic health, better than anticipated numbers have the potential to strengthen the Pound. Of course the US employment data will have a direct impact on the pairís movement.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  5. #24
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    Forex News: US Retail Sales Ė the incentive for a break of Support or Resistance

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with price moving in one direction for almost the entire day. The better than expected value of the Euro Zone Industrial Production greatly contributed to this upward movement by strengthening the Euro.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair made an attempt to break this yearís high located at 1.3914 and price is now in close vicinity of this level but there are no clear hints of a breakout or of a bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is very close to the 70 level, a fact which indicates an overbought condition of the market and price is printing a double top pattern which usually indicates that lower moves are anticipated. The main levels to watch are 1.3914 as resistance and 1.3830 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales represent a hefty part of the entire US consumer spending and are considered a market mover which can drastically affect the pairís behavior. For todayís release an increase is anticipated from the previous value of -0.4% to 0.2% and usually better than expected numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    For a long time we expected a break of either support or resistance and yesterday the pair moved briefly below 1.6600. However the break could not be sustained by the bears and price moved quickly to the upside.



    Technical Outlook

    The fact that yesterday price tried to break the important support located at 1.6600 but failed and quickly returned above it indicates that bears are not ready yet to take control of the pair. To the upside, the first level of interest remains 1.6650 while 1.6600 is still support which could generate a bounce higher if itís not broken today. We remain neutral until a clear break occurs.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases so we consider the US event to be the main market mover of the day.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  6. #25
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    Forex New: Support levels threatened again

    EUR/USD


    Forex New: The pair had a wild day yesterday, characterized by Euro Zone optimism which took price higher but was soon followed by a sharp reversal triggered partly by a better than expected value of the US Retail Sales.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday price printed a new high at 1.3965 but the Dollar strengthened after the US data came out and 1.3914 (previous high) was broken to the down side. The latest fall opens the door for a break of 1.3830 support, a fact which would represent a major victory for the bears. Note that the drop didnít occur immediately after the release of the US Retail Sales so technical reasons, not only fundamental were responsible for it, a fact which makes us believe that high prices were hard to sustain, the bullish trend was overextended and the market was in need of a strong move to the south which may turn into a full scale reversal.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 07:00 am GMT the German Final Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.2%. The indicator is Germanyís main inflation gauge but it is usually overshadowed by the Preliminary version which is released about 15 days earlier; however, higher values have the potential to strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to increase from the previous 81.2 to 81.9; higher levels of consumer confidence are indicative of future increases in consumer spending which is vital for the economy so US Dollar strength is anticipated if higher values will be posted.


    GBP/USD

    The first part of yesterdayís trading session was controlled by the bulls on the back of speculation that Bank of England will raise the Interest Rate sooner than estimated but the day finished with a stronger US Dollar and a bearish move which nullified the Poundís previous gains.



    Technical Outlook

    The recent encounter with the support located at 1.6600 resulted in a bounce higher which broke 1.6650 decisively to the upside; however, the rally was sharply reversed and price moved lower, in close vicinity to 1.6600. All this goes to show that indecision still rules the pair but the bears can make a decisive move today if they manage to break 1.6600 support and finish the week below it. We slightly favor this scenario and anticipate a break of 1.6600 but we acknowledge the fact that bulls still have underlying strength and may take the pair north.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom releases the Trade Balance today at 09:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and higher readings are beneficial for the Pound. Todayís expected value is -8.7B while the previous was -7.7B but the indicator is not considered a market mover and the impact is usually mild. The US Confidence indicator will have a direct impact on the pairís movement as well.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  7. #26
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    Forex Technical Analysis: Bearish pressure is building up. Fundamentals hold center-stage

    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: Trading was affected last week by growing tensions regarding the Ukraine crisis which generated choppy price action and a lot of reversals. US economic data was mixed and contributed to the pairís lack of clear direction.



    Technical Outlook

    The fact that bulls managed to keep price above 1.3830 for an entire week and also printed a new high at 1.3965, shows that the uptrend is still not exhausted. If this new high will be broken again this week, the next level of interest to the upside is the psychological resistance located at 1.4000 which is also a big round number and this kind of levels tend to have great importance for price action. Although the pair is in an uptrend, a move below 1.3830 would be proof of bear-strength and would make 1.3710 the next target of the week.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The first day of the week brings us the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is the most important gauge of inflation but it tends to have a limited impact on the pair because the German CPI (which accounts for the major part of European inflation) was already released. Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the main European event while the US will release the Consumer Price Index which, as mentioned before, has high inflationary implications.

    Wednesday has the potential to be the most volatile day of the week and all eyes will be on the US for the release of the Interest Rate, FOMCís Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Yellenís Press Conference. The press conference is likely to be a huge market mover, especially in its second part when Janet Yellen will answer audience questions. The Fed will also decide whether they will further adjust the monetary stimulus program or not, an issue which has been a top concern of market participants and is likely to generate tremendous volatility.

    Thursday the US Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released, offering insights into the situation of the housing market and the progress of the manufacturing sector. The last important event of the week comes out Friday in the form of the Euro Zone Trade Balance which shows the difference between imported and exported goods. The impact of this indicator is not always high, especially if the actual number is close to the forecast.


    GBP/USD

    The beginning of last week was characterized by a strong move lower which took the pair close to 1.6600 support but for the rest of the week, the bears struggled without success to continue the move and break the mentioned level.



    Technical Outlook

    The balance of power starts to shift in favor of the bears although the pair is still in a range defined by 1.6750 resistance and 1.6600 support. Important to note is the fact that last week price moved up after a touch of 1.6600 but the bears quickly took it back down, resulting in a Daily pin candle (Thursday). Pin bars usually indicate rejection and in this particular case, a move south is expected, but the fundamental aspect of the week will have an important role and may change this scenario.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday in London at the Annual Mais Lecture. His speeches are potential market movers and the market often reacts to his attitude or to clues about future interest rates. Wednesday the Band of England will make public the Minutes of their latest Meeting; the Claimant Count Change which is released the same day will offer insights into the British jobs situation. These are the main events for the Pound but the pair will be directly affected by the US data released throughout the week.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  8. #27
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    Forex News: Slow movement ahead of Manufacturing data

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday we had a slow trading session, with price retracing higher as anticipated but the lack of major economic data releases translated into a movement of less than 50 pips for the entire day. Overall, it was a calm end to a very busy week.



    Technical Outlook

    From a Daily chart perspective, the market is in a clear uptrend, however on the lower time frames, a down trend is starting to form. For todayís trading session we anticipate moves lower and a potential break of the support zone created around 1.3760, a fact which would open the door for a touch of 1.3710 major support. To the up side, the first major resistance sits at 1.3830 but we donít expect a bullish break of this level unless surprising numbers are posted for todayís economic indicators.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT Germany will announce their Manufacturing PMI which is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector. The anticipated figure is 54.7, a slight decrease from the previous 54.8 and under normal circumstances, better than anticipated values are beneficial for the Euro. The US Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 1:45 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 56.6, a decrease from the previous 57.1. Similar to the German PMI, better numbers can strengthen the currency and take the pair lower.


    GBP/USD

    The pair moved mostly sideways during Fridayís trading session, a fact which was mainly due to the lackluster fundamental scene and lack of economic indicator releases.



    Technical Outlook

    Price traded for the entire Friday session very close to the support created at 1.6480, in a very small range, a fact which doesnít offer a lot of hints about todayís potential direction. However, lately the bears have been in control of the pair and the chart doesnít show strong signs of bullish moves so we anticipate a break of 1.6480 minor support if the US Manufacturing PMI doesnít post a surprising number.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a slow day in terms of economic indicator releases and the focus will be on the US data and on the technical aspect of the market.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  9. #28
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    Forex News: Technical factors overshadowed by political turmoil

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday an emergency G7 meeting was held in The Hague to discuss potential sanctions against Russia for the takeover of Crimea and this triggered a strong move up which took the pair above 1.3830.



    Technical Outlook

    Before the G7 meeting, the pair moved lower on the back or worse than expected German data but now the picture is unclear once again. The rise was not generated entirely by technical reasons so the break of 1.3830 can be a false one and price is likely to move below this level once again if things calm down on the political scene. The support located at 1.3760 was touched for a second time today without being broken so now its importance has increased and a potential break will weigh more for short term price action; however, if the bulls can maintain price above 1.3830 the bearish momentum will start to fade away.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Two important indicators are released today: the first is the German Ifo Business Climate which is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 7,000 businesses and has the potential to take the pair higher if better values are posted. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected value is 110.9, a slight decrease from last monthís 111.3. The second indicator is the US Consumer Confidence which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT with an estimated increase to 78.7 from the previous 78.1. If consumers are optimistic about economic conditions, they are likely to spend more and consumer spending is of crucial importance to the US economy so higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar and can take the pair lower.


    GBP/USD

    Price moved mostly sideways before the G7 meeting but a fast rise ended this calm behavior. The US data didnít have a notable impact on the pair and the highlight of the day was the whipsaw seen during the G7 meeting.



    Technical Outlook

    The technical aspect of the market is overshadowed at the moment by the political developments but it is important to acknowledge the fact that bulls couldnít sustain the high price generated by the G7 meeting. This shows us that bears still have underlying strength and that lower prices are a distinct possibility. The first support is located at 1.6480 while resistance sits at 1.6600 but our technical bias is neutral considering the current political situation.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom announces today at 9:30 am GMT the Consumer Price Index which is the prime inflation gauge and is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made. A higher inflation can determine the BoE to raise the interest rate and this is the reason why higher than expected values for todayís release can strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. The anticipated value is 1.7%, a decrease from the current 1.9%. The pair will be directly affected by the US releases and by political events.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  10. #29
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    Forex News: US data may bring an end to market indecision

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterdayís trading session was choppy and characterized by a lot of back and forth movement. Germanyís Business Climate came out with a value which was very close to the expected one but the US Consumer Confidence posted a better reading, strengthening the US Dollar.



    Technical Outlook

    The US Dollar strength generated by the Consumer Confidence release took the pair down into the support located at 1.3760 but price bounced higher from there and the pair experienced another encounter with 1.3830 resistance. This up and down movement doesnít offer many clues about future direction but is likely to come to an end today and 1.3830 or 1.3760 will probably be broken. The direction of the break however, is harder to predict, considering yesterdayís wild movement. We slightly favor the short side but a lot will depend on the outcome of the US data release.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today at 12:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are announced and expected to increase substantially from the previous -1.0% to 1.1%. Such an increase would most likely strengthen the US Dollar because more orders for durable goods suggest that producers will intensify their activity to fill those orders. Also, because durable goods are more expensive than normal ones, a rise in demand for such goods indicates consumer confidence regarding the current and future economic conditions.


    GBP/USD

    United Kingdomís Consumer Price Index was released yesterday with the anticipated value of 1.7% and the market did not react strongly, mainly because the value didnít come as a surprise. Overall we had a bullish day but trading on the lower time frames was rather difficult.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the last couple of days have been characterized by market indecision and choppy price action, we anticipate a move below the support located at 1.6480. This bearish bias is mostly based on the fact that medium term control still belongs to the bears and we consider the latest rise just a normal retracement after price moved strongly in one direction. To the north, the first resistance is located at 1.6600 and a move above it would make us reassess our bearish stance.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didnít schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be mostly driven by the US economic indicator and by the technical aspect.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  11. #30
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    Forex News: Price confined between support and resistance. A breakout is imminent

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterdayís release of the US Durable Goods Orders didnít do much to affect the pair although the indicator posted much better than anticipated numbers. However, the US Dollar strengthened throughout the day but price action was characterized by some sharp turns on the lower time frames.



    Technical Outlook

    After price tried a second time to break the resistance located at 1.3830 but failed, the bears seem to be taking back control of the pair. If this is the case, we will probably see a break of the support located at 1.3760 and a continued move lower, towards 1.3710. For the moment, 1.3830 is still strong resistance but a break would be indicative of a shift of bias and a potential resumption of the long term uptrend.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the US Unemployment Claims are released, with an anticipated increase from last weekís 320K to 326K, a fact which would probably weaken the US Dollar because a higher number of unemployed people, suggests that consumer spending may decrease in the near future. The US Pending Home Sales are announced at 2:00 pm GMT with no change anticipated from the current 0.1%; better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the greenback as home purchases are usually made during times of economic expansion.


    GBP/USD

    The pair moved on a bullish path for the entire day and price came close to 1.6600 resistance. The bullish sentiment was triggered by speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy continues to recover.



    Technical Outlook

    An encounter with 1.6600 resistance seems almost imminent but if it occurs we expect a bounce lower. Since the beginning of the month the pair has been moving in a bearish manner and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is close to overbought territory so moves lower after a touch of resistance have a higher probability. A break to the up side of 1.6600 would make 1.6650 the next target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The most important event of the day for the pair will be the release of the UK Retail Sales which is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. Analystsí forecast a rise from the previous -1.5% to 0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound because retail sales represent the majority of consumer spending. US unemployment and house-market data will have a direct impact on the pair.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writerís 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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