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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #31
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    Forex News: Price action governed by German inflation data and British GDP

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The anticipated breakout occurred yesterday and price moved below minor support although the US data was mixed and rather inconclusive. Overall price action moved steady to the down side and wasn’t characterized by sharp turns.



    Technical Outlook

    The move below 1.3760 opens the door for an encounter with 1.3710 major support but before this can happen, we anticipate another touch from below of the recently broken level. If this potential touch will trigger a bounce lower, the chances for a bearish break of 1.3710 will increase. Today’s price direction will be highly affected by the German CPI release and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The German Consumer Price Index which is the main measure of inflation for the German economy will be released today at 1:00 pm GMT. German inflation accounts for the major part of European inflation and higher values will be countered by the ECB with a rate adjustment. For today’s release, a small decrease is anticipated from the previous 1.2% to 1.1%, a fact which would be detrimental for the Euro and may take the pair lower.



    GBP/USD

    The Pound strengthened substantially yesterday on the back of a much better than anticipated value of the UK Retail Sales. The pair’s movement was clearly bullish and the major level of 1.6600 was broken.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s developments shifted control in favor of the bulls, but for the moment we must wait and see if they can keep price above 1.6600 or if we are dealing with a false break. The resistance located at 1.6650 was also touched but price immediately bounced lower and the Relative Strength Index is returning from overbought territory so moves lower are a distinct possibility.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:30 am GMT the Final version of UK’s Gross Domestic Product is released. Although this version doesn’t have such a high impact as the preliminary GDP, strong moves are expected, considering the fact that the GDP is the primary gauge of an economy’s performance. No change is anticipated from the previous 0.7%, but usually higher values are beneficial for the Pound and can take the pair higher.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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  3. #32
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    Forex News: A busy Monday – speeches and inflation data ahead

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday’s release of the German Consumer Price Index didn’t have the usual impact on price direction and the pair moved up although the CPI value was worse than anticipated. This is partly attributed to the fact that some market participants were anticipating an even lower value than the actual one.



    Technical Outlook


    After an almost perfect bounce off 1.3710, price moved to touch 1.3760 resistance but the bulls couldn’t continue the momentum and the pair finished the week trading between the two levels. On the Hourly chart above, the pair is in a down trend, a fact which favors moves south but keep in mind that on higher time frames an uptrend is established. This makes the picture somewhat unclear and we believe that today’s direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Euro Zone Core Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and a lower value is expected: 0.8% (previous is 1.0%). The CPI is widely regarded as the prime inflation gauge and the Core version excludes energy and food from calculation, thus giving a more accurate assessment of current conditions. Usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

    Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today in Chicago at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference. The event is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and can trigger strong movement although the currency market is not the main subject of her speech.


    GBP/USD

    The British Gross Domestic Product released Friday posted the anticipated value and as a result the market didn’t react strongly. However, the pair slowly climbed for almost the entire day and the week finished near resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    Friday’s rally took the pair in close vicinity of 1.6650 resistance for the second time in a short while. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is indicating an overbought condition so further moves up will encounter increased resistance but this overbought state of the market is not a clear indication of bearish moves as oscillators can remain above the overbought level for an extended time. The main levels to watch today are 1.6650 as resistance and 1.6600 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the value of the Net Lending to Individuals. Although it is not considered a high-impact indicator, higher values usually strengthen the Pound because they suggest that consumers are confident in economic conditions and are willing to spend more money. The consensus value is 2.3B while previous was 2.1B.

    At 5:15 pm GMT Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak at a press conference in London. As always, his public speeches can turn into market movers if the monetary policy topic is touched.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  4. #33
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    Forex News: Headlines held by manufacturing data

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Intraday trading was made difficult yesterday by the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which generated a massive whipsaw. The lower-than-expected value posted by the indicator initially took price lower but soon after the pair rallied above resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    After the touch of 1.3710 which occurred last week, the bears seemed to have lost their control over the pair and at the moment the bulls dictate direction, despite disappointing data for the Euro. The level of 1.3760 was broken to the upside and now price returned close to it for a re-test; we anticipate a move higher, possibly close to the resistance located at 1.3830 but a lot depends on the fundamental data released today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today at 7:15 am GMT the Spanish Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from 52.5 to 52.9; half an hour later the same indicator but for the Italian economy is released and expected to slightly decrease from 52.3 to 52.2. Both these indicators are surveys based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and have the potential to strengthen the Euro if better numbers are posted. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI comes out, with an estimated increase from the previous 53.2 to 54.2. Similar to the other two indicators, higher values usually strengthen the currency.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound continued its climb yesterday and broke the resistance level located at 1.6650 on the back of speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy keeps improving.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the latest movement favors the bulls, the Relative Strength Index has been hovering above the 70 level for a few days and a move lower is probable. The first barrier for this potential move lower is located at 1.6650, followed by 1.6600, while 1.6750 is the main resistance in front of rising prices, although we don’t anticipate such a strong rally unless surprising numbers are posted for today’s economic indicators.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and estimated to slightly decrease from 56.9 to 56.7. The indicator is based on the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts better than anticipated numbers. US data will also affect the pair’s behavior.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  5. #34
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    Forex News: ADP Non Farm Employment data likely to put an end to market indecision

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Manufacturing PMIs released yesterday didn’t have a huge impact on the pair, mostly because their value was close to the anticipated one and as a result, price moved in a narrow, 50 pip range.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday price traveled north, towards the resistance located at 1.3830 but the day was slow, as mentioned before. The four hour candles show long wicks at their upper side, a fact which indicates rejection and a potential move lower but the Relative Strength Index didn’t reach an overbought condition so the bullish move might continue until 1.3830 is reached. To the down side, 1.3760 remains support, followed by 1.3710.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Euro has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases and the most important data of the day comes from the United States in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change. This report is released by a privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing Inc.) and shows changes in the number of employed persons during the previous month. Today’s indicator is less important than the Government issued data which comes out Friday but a higher value is regarded as beneficial for the US economy and has the potential to bring the pair lower. The time of the release is 12:15 pm GMT and the expected number is 192K, a hefty increase from the previous 139K.


    GBP/USD

    United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations and this weakened the Pound throughout the day, allowing the pair to move lower and to break the minor support located at 1.6650.



    Technical Outlook

    For a few days the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition and yesterday the pair retraced lower, partially helped by this state of the indicator. However, lately the pair was controlled by the bulls and yesterday’s move might be just a retracement, especially if price will quickly move above 1.6650. Important support sits at 1.6600 and a move below it would put the bears in short term control of the pair.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT, with an anticipated increase from 62.6 to 63.1. The construction sector is an important part of the British economy and higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the Pound. The US release mentioned earlier will also have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  6. #35
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    Forex News: A crucial day for the Euro – ECB Interest Rate and Press Conference ahead

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair moved lower yesterday after the ADP Non Farm Employment report posted a reading of 191K, very close to the anticipated 192K. Although the number wasn’t better than anticipated, it was still a hefty increase from the previous value and the US dollar strengthened as a result.



    Technical Outlook

    The drop seen yesterday is a sign that bears are trying to take back control of the pair but the support located at 1.3760 couldn’t be broken, despite the strength exhibited by the greenback. If this support level is not broken quickly and price stalls or even bounces higher, it could be a sign that Euro still has underlying strength and that moves higher could follow. We have a very important day ahead as the ECB announces the Rate decision and S/R levels will probably be broken but the direction depends mainly on what ECB President Mario Draghi will say during the Press Conference.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The ECB will announce the Euro Zone Interest Rate today at 11:45 am GMT (no change expected from the current 0.25%) but the main event of the day is the Press Conference which follows at 12:30 pm GMT. During this press conference, Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then he will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the conference is usually the one that creates the strongest moves as traders try to interpret his attitude and find hints about the Euro’s next direction.


    GBP/USD

    United Kingdom’s construction PMI released yesterday posted a lower than anticipated value, generating a weakening of the Pound. Good US employment data strengthened the US Dollar but although all ingredients were present for a major drop, this did not occur and the pair had slow movement.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is trading below 1.6650 but the overall movement is sideways and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition of the market so it doesn’t offer many clues regarding the next move and at the moment our bias is neutral on the pair, expecting a strong move in either direction. The main levels are 1.6600 as support, and 1.6750 as resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook

    AT 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, but no change is expected from the current 58.2. A higher reading is regarded as beneficial for the Pound as the survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as an indicator of economic health.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  7. #36
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    Forex News: US Non Farm Employment report – a highly anticipated market mover

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The ECB Interest Rate remained unchanged as expected but Mario Draghi’s comments about “unconventional” measures against deflation were perceived as bearish for the Euro and took the pair into major support.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s move puts the bears back in control of the pair, but an important barrier sits in front of falling prices: the support level located at 1.3710. If this support will be broken today, the next medium term target is 1.3550 but for the moment the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory and support is still intact so retracements higher are possible. Today is an important day as US employment data is released and will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The release of the US Non Farm Employment report is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is 199k, an increase from the previous 175K. Rising levels of employment are crucial for the American economy and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future, a fact considered bullish by market participants. Almost always this indicator is a huge market mover and has a major impact on price action so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


    GBP/USD

    Throughout yesterday’s trading session the pair had a bearish behavior, moving south of 1.6600 support on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the British Services PMI.



    Technical Outlook

    The current momentum is bearish and price broke 1.6600 to the down side once again. Under normal circumstances, this move could be easily continued during today’s trading session but the release of the US employment report will be the main event of the day and will probably dictate direction. The most important levels to watch are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6480 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic data and all focus will be on the US Non Farm Employment Change which has the potential to strengthen or weaken the greenback considerably, thus affecting the pair directly.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  8. #37
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    Forex News: Pound highly affected by two important economic indicators

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the bulls were in control of the pair’s movement and managed to take price above 1.3710. The German Industrial Production indicator posted a reading close to estimates and didn’t affect price action substantially.



    Technical Outlook

    The oversold condition signaled previously by the Relative Strength Index helped the bulls to take price above 1.3710 yesterday and for today’s trading session we anticipate a touch of 1.3760 followed by a move lower, possibly into 1.3700 zone again. If the RSI becomes overbought in the mean time, chances of a drop will increase.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The US Job Openings will be released today at 2:00 pm GMT, with an anticipated increase from the previous 3.97M to 3.99M. This is not a high impact indicator but it is focused on the jobs sector which is always important for the US economy and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    The pair experienced a bullish trading session yesterday and moved above major resistance once again. Although price moved in a single direction for almost the entire day, the distance traveled was not huge and overall, trading was calm.



    Technical Outlook

    For today’s trading session we anticipate a move lower, below 1.6600 but before that happens, a touch of 1.6650 resistance is a strong possibility. Neither bulls nor bears are in clear control of the pair but a decisive move below 1.6600 will make 1.6480 the next lower target. The United Kingdom has a busy day ahead in terms of economic releases so the technical aspect will be secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    UK’s Manufacturing Production will be released today at 8:30 am GMT; the forecast is a slight decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would weaken the Pound since the manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy and makes up for about 80% of the entire Industrial production. The second important release of the day is the NIESR estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 0.8% and higher values will probably take the pair north, on the back of Pound strength.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  9. #38
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    [size=small]Forex News: FOMC Meeting Minutes – the deciding factor of the day

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar exhibited weakness against most of its counterparts and this allowed the Euro to take the pair higher, above the resistance located at 1.3760. Throughout the day the bulls showed almost complete control of the pair.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the bulls are in control of short term movement, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has moved above the level of 70, a fact which indicates an overbought market. This implies that retracements lower might occur today, especially if the pair touches 1.3830. The level of 1.3760 will probably become support and has the ability to reject price higher.

    Fundamental Outlook

    An important US event is scheduled today at 6:00 pm GMT: the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details about the latest Fed Meeting and the reasons that influenced the votes regarding the Federal Funds Rate. Hints about future monetary decisions may also be present, a fact which highly influences the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    The British Manufacturing Production surprisingly increased from the anticipated 0.3% to 1.0% and the Pound strengthened substantially as a result. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and resistance levels were broken with ease.



    Technical Outlook

    Considering the latest strength showed by the Pound, we anticipate a move above 1.6750 resistance but before that can happen, a bearish retracement is expected. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, a fact which adds to our belief that a move lower will occur before other advances will take place.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Trade Balance which tracks the difference between imported and exported goods. Although it is considered a medium impact indicator, surprising numbers can move the pair significantly. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated number is -9.3B, an increase from the previous -9.8B. Of course, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will have a direct impact on price direction.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].[/size]

  10. #39
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    Forex News: Overbought markets call for a retracement

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session, the pair touched 1.3830 and US Dollar weakness generated by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes pushed price even higher. The Minutes showed that speculation of an early rate increase might be wrong, a fact which triggered the mentioned greenback weakness.



    Technical Outlook

    The market is controlled by the bulls and moves higher are anticipated. However, the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe overbought condition and this makes a move lower highly probable. The first level of interest to the down side is 1.3830 and if price will touch it, bullish movement is likely to resume.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The European Central Bank will release at 8:00 am GMT the Monthly Bulletin which contains information regarding the financial and economic data which was taken into consideration when the ECB decided at what level to set the interest rate. The Bulletin will also contain the Bank’s view on the current and future economic situation.

    Some volatility may also be triggered by the G20 Meetings which take place today in Washington DC. One of the main subjects will be the Russia – Ukraine crisis, a topic which created strong movement in the past.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had slow movement ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, but it started to pick up speed once the Minutes were released and price moved comfortably above 1.6750 resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The clear break of 1.6750 opens the door for a touch and even a break of the year’s high located at 1.6822. Even if the momentum belongs to the bulls and the US Dollar shows clear signs of weakness, a dip lower is expected because the pair moved almost 250 pips without a retracement. Adding to this is the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index so we expect a move into 1.6750 before price continues higher to touch 1.6822.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Bank of England will release today at 11:00 am GMT the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but almost always volatility accompanies this event. The Asset Purchase Facility will be announced at the same time; no change is expected (currently the value is 375 billion Pounds) but a higher value usually weakens the Pound while a lower one is considered bullish. If the Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility is modified in any way, an official statement will be released by the Bank of England, explaining the reasons which determined this decision.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  11. #40
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    Forex News: Can the bulls finish the week in total control?

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was characterized by a very small retracement lower followed by a move higher and a continuation of the previous bullish momentum. The Monthly Bulletin released by the ECB did not generate sharp moves, mainly because it didn’t show any surprising data.



    Technical Outlook

    Even if the bulls’ strength is obvious, we expect a stronger retracement to the down side, considering the severely overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index. This retracement will most likely find support at 1.3830 where a bounce higher has a high probability of occurring. To the up side, the first major resistance level is located at 1.3965.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index which is estimated to decrease from 1.2% to 1.0%. Inflation highly influences the ECB decision regarding future interest rates and higher than anticipated values have the ability to strengthen the Euro. The release is scheduled at 6:00 am GMT.

    Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the United States will announce the Producer Price Index which is expected to change from -0.1% to 0.1%, a fact which would strengthen the US Dollar. The economic week finishes with the release of the US Consumer Confidence, scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and anticipated to increase from the previous 80.0 to 81.2. Confidence among consumers is highly correlated with consumer spending so better numbers for today’s release will most likely strengthen the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    United Kingdom’s Interest Rate remained unchanged at 0.50%, a fact which was anticipated by market participants and didn’t generate a lot of volatility. However, the pair moved lower during the day and almost touched the support located at 1.6750.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s retracement didn’t manage to bring the Relative Strength Index below the 70 level so the market is still considered overbought, a fact which favors moves south. If such moves will occur today, the level of 1.6750 will act as good support and will probably push price higher, for another attempt to break 1.6822 resistance. The bulls are clearly in control of the pair so moves higher can occur without retracements lower.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic news releases so the pair will be influenced by the US indicators mentioned earlier and by technical factors.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

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