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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #41
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    Forex News: US Retail Sales generate strong moves

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday was a slow day for the pair and the US Dollar struggled to drive the pair down but didn’t succeed although better than anticipated economic data was released by the United States.



    Technical Outlook

    On a four hour chart we can notice the fact that the Relative Strength Index started to move down, out of the overbought territory where it stayed for most of last week. This is indicative of a potential retracement lower, which will most likely touch 1.3830 support. Of course, price can continue to move north today as well, because indicators can signal an overbought condition for extended periods of time; if this is the case resistance will be provided by the level of 1.3965.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is released today at 9:00 am, with an estimated increase from the previous -0.2% to 0.3%. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicator doesn’t have a high impact on the market. The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales are crucial for the overall state of the economy and higher values are considered bullish for the greenback; today’s forecast is an increase from the previous 0.3% to 0.8%.


    GBP/USD

    The pair retraced lower Friday and this move was generated by the positive US data we mentioned earlier; however, this doesn’t change the fact that bulls are in control of the pair’s direction.



    Technical Outlook

    As we mentioned in our Weekly analysis, the pair printed a double top at 1.6820, which is a bearish chart pattern. We anticipate another move up, into this resistance zone and we believe that if price indeed moves there, it will offer hints about future direction: a bounce would indicate that bears are stepping in and a stronger retracement lower is in order, while a break will most likely bring more buyers in the market. Today’s important levels are 1.6750 and 1.6680 as potential support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Price action will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by technical factors as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any high-impact economic data.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  2. Under 1st Post -dynamo
  3. #42
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    Forex News: Retracements complete. Can the bulls resume the uptrend?

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The release of the American Retail Sales didn’t create the expected strong movement but the week opened with a gap down which was mostly due to dovish comments made by Mario Draghi during the weekend.



    Technical Outlook

    During yesterday’s trading session the pair moved below the level located at 1.3830 but today we expect a move back up above this level and possibly an uptrend resumption. For the time being, Monday’s move lower is just a retracement and also a good place for more buyers to join the uptrend so our bias is bullish. A move below 1.3760 would severely weaken this uptrend and would put the bears in control.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the day’s main release for the Euro. Scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, the indicator is expected to decrease to a value of 45 from the previous 46.6, a fact which would most likely weaken the Euro and drive the pair lower. The US Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of inflation will be released later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is an increase to 1.4% from 1.1% and if it comes true, we will most likely see US Dollar strength and moves lower for the pair.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow, with the pair moving south during the first part of the day and climbing during the second. The pair had a high-to-low range of less than 50 pips and no special developments took place.



    Technical Outlook

    We anticipate an increase in traveled distance and stronger moves today. The bulls still have underlying strength so they are likely to take price above 1.6750, in an attempt to break the double top formed at 1.6822/20. To the down side, the first level of interest remains 1.6680 and a move below it would open the door for another break of 1.6600 support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The main Pound-affecting event today is the release of United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The CPI is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made, hence the importance of this indicator. Higher than expected values usually strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. Also, the pair’s direction will be affected by the release of the US Consumer Price Index.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  4. #43
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    Forex News: Bullish pressure heightens. Resistance levels tested again

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the German ZEW survey showed a disappointing value while the US Consumer Price Index came out better than expected but the pair was difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames; growing tensions in Ukraine also contributed to this choppy price action.



    Technical Outlook

    Although during the second part of yesterday’s session the Euro gained against the US Dollar, the level of 1.3830 couldn’t be broken to the up side, a fact which shows that indecision is present in the market. If the uptrend will resume, today we will probably see a break of the mentioned level; otherwise the support located at 1.3760 will become the first target and the uptrend will be severely weakened.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s most important event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. The current value is 0.5% and no change is expected but the CPI is the main gauge of inflation so the ECB closely watches it when the Interest Rate decision is made and higher values usually strengthen the Euro. Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits are released, offering insights into the American house market; the expected value is 1.00M, a small decrease from the previous 1.01M and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.6%, as anticipated but a huge whipsaw was seen once the number was released and price moved higher after an initial drop.



    Technical Outlook

    The bullish momentum seems to fade away and no major advances were made after the double top formed at 1.6822. If price doesn’t cross soon the barrier located at 1.6750, the bears might step in to take control of the pair so for today the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6680 as support; the break of either level can trigger a continued move in that direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be released; the estimated number is -30.2K, an increase compared to last month’s -34.6K and usually, higher levels of unemployment are detrimental for the Pound because jobless people spend less than people who are employed and consumer spending is crucial for the economy. The data released by the United States will directly affect the pair’s direction throughout the day.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  5. #44
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    Forex News: Last economic releases before the Easter Holidays

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index came out as expected, with a value of 0.5% and the US Building Permits didn’t post a surprise either. As a result, the pair lacked clear direction yesterday and price moved above and below 1.3830.



    Technical Outlook

    The bulls tried to take the pair above 1.3830 but the move was almost immediately reversed, a fact which shows underlying bear strength. However, once price moved below 1.3830, it just remained there and no strong moves occurred. This indicates that indecision is present in the market and almost anything can happen until a clear move is made by either bulls or bears. Our bias is neutral at the moment, in anticipation of a clear display of power from either side. The levels to watch are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s most important events come from the US today: the Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT and anticipated to increase to 316K from last week’s 300K. A higher level of unemployment is detrimental to the US economy and to the US Dollar but the impact of the indicator is not consistent, mostly because it is released every week. The second economic release is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on manufacturing performance in the Philadelphia district. Higher numbers than today’s anticipated 9.6 usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the Pound scored another victory versus the US Dollar on the back of a better than expected value of Unemployment Rate. As a result, the pair broke 1.6750 resistance and touched 1.6820 again.



    Technical Outlook

    Price touched the resistance zone formed around 1.6820 for the third time, creating a Triple Top, which is a bearish pattern and is usually seen at the end of an uptrend. This is a major sign that moves south will follow if this triple top cannot be broken soon. The first level that can offer support is 1.6750 but we might also experience a ranging day because no major news releases are scheduled for the Pound.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Market participants will shift their attention towards the US for the releases mentioned above since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news for today. The approaching of the Easter holidays may generate irregular movement and possibly increased volatility.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  6. #45
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    Forex News: Markets take a break for Easter

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday price moved in a range of about 15 pips which was almost impossible to trade. This behavior was triggered by the fact that many brokerages and banks were closed, celebrating Good Friday.



    Technical Outlook

    Today no movement is anticipated because banks and brokerages around the world are closed due to Easter Holidays. The market takes a break and once trading resumes, 1.3830 is the first level to watch for a bounce or break scenario.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Due to Easter Monday, no important economic or financial indicators are released today.


    GBP/USD

    The pair also moved sideways Friday as most traders took the day off and volume was extremely thin.



    Technical Outlook

    The day will lack movement and most markets around the world will be closed today. The important levels to watch once action resumes are 1.6820 and 1.6750.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The fundamental scene is quiet today, for the reasons mentioned above.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  7. #46
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    FOREX NEWS: VOLUME BACK TO NORMAL. THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO REVEAL ITS REAL DIRECTION

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair moved slowly yesterday, but had a higher range than expected, considering that many banks around the world were closed, celebrating Easter. No economic indicators were released but the US Dollar took the pair lower.



    Technical Outlook

    We saw an almost perfect bounce lower once price touched 1.3830 resistance and price started to head towards 1.3760 support. However, this movement cannot be considered a clear sign that bears try to take control of price direction and it’s rather just a behavior generated by low volume. Today’s price action will offer better hints about the next medium term direction and the main levels to watch remain 1.3830 and 1.3760.

    Fundamental Outlook

    All major banks will be open today so volatility is returning to normal but only one important economic indicator is released: The US Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and better figures usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 4.57M, while the previous was 4.60M.


    GBP/USD

    Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced off resistance yesterday but the movement was slow and the pair moved in a tight range.



    Technical Outlook

    Now that Easter is behind us, we expect to see where the pair is really headed. The resistance located at 1.6820 rejected price as soon as it was touched and under normal circumstances we would anticipate a touch of 1.6750 or at least a clear move towards it. However, because the pair is in a long term uptrend, another move into 1.6820 or even above it is not out of the question.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today no economic data comes out of the United Kingdom and price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors and by the US release mentioned earlier.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  8. #47
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    FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING PMIS AND BOE MEETING MINUTES RESTORE VOLATILITY

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair continued to move without clear direction yesterday and the slightly better than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales didn’t trigger a sharp drop even if some US Dollar strength could be seen at the time of the release.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the picture is not clear and movement is rather ranging, we can notice some rejection off 1.3830 resistance, which is a sign that 1.3760 might be touched today. We slightly favor the down side but we acknowledge the fact that yesterday’s price action is not very conclusive. The Euro Zone will release 2 economic indicators today so the pair’s direction will be influenced by them, especially because the technical aspect is unclear.

    Fundamental Outlook

    France announces the Manufacturing PMI at 7:00 am GMT. Analysts expect a very small increase from 51.8 to 51.9 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro since the indicator acts as a gauge of optimism among purchasing managers who activate in the Manufacturing sector. At 7:30 am GMT, the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to increase from 53.7 to 53.9.
    The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 2:00 pm GMT, with an increase anticipated: 455K from the previous 440K. A higher number than forecast could take the pair lower on the back of greenback strength.


    GBP/USD

    Slowly but surely the Pound climbed above the major resistance located at 1.6820 and the better than expected value of the US Existing Home Sales couldn’t generate enough downward momentum to bring price below the mentioned level.



    Technical Outlook

    The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is approaching the level of 70 which indicates an overbought condition of the market; although this is not a sign of clear reversal on its own, it makes further advancements more difficult. We favor a move below 1.6820 unless the bulls can show a quick and clear proof of strength (clear move above the mentioned level). The first support level is located at 1.6750.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT the Minutes of the latest Bank of England Meeting are released. The document will outline the reasons which stood behind the Interest Rate decision and will contain the breakdown of the members’ votes. The Minutes also allow traders to see how many members are changing their stance regarding the value of the interest rate, thus offering clues about future rate direction.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  9. #48
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    FOREX NEWS: MARIO DRAGHI STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT ONCE AGAIN

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started with Euro bulls in control of the pair, on the back of a better than anticipated value of the German Manufacturing PMI. However, the bears came back strong in the second part of yesterday and almost nullified previous advances.



    Technical Outlook

    A move that appeared to be a valid break of resistance was soon reversed and price traveled south of 1.3830 once again. This erratic movement suggests that the market is still in a state of indecision and that both bullish and bearish moves can occur. The main levels to watch today are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support and stronger moves are anticipated, especially at the time of Mario Draghi’s speech.

    Fundamental Outlook

    ECB President Mario Draghi will speak today at a conference held in Amsterdam and as always, his speech can be a good source of volatility and strong moves, especially if he will talk about ECB’s future monetary policy. The speech is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and an hour earlier, the German Ifo Business Climate will be released, with an anticipated decrease from 110.7 to 110.5. This is a survey of about 7,000 businesses, which acts as a gauge of optimism so usually, higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Euro.

    Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT, the United States will release the Durable Goods Orders (orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years). Te anticipated value is 2.1% while the previous was 2.2% and under normal circumstances, a decrease would weaken the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session, the Pound weakened against the greenback and overall price action trended smoothly downward.



    Technical Outlook

    The strong resistance located at 1.6820 pushed the pair lower yesterday and by doing so, it also showed us that the long term uptrend is beginning to waver. For today’s trading session we anticipate a move below 1.6750, a fact which would also signify a big victory for the bears. Considering the fact that we are still in an uptrend from a long term perspective, another move into 1.6820 is not out of the question.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic indicator releases today so price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US event mentioned earlier.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  10. #49
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    FOREX NEWS: A SLOW MONDAY AHEAD; NO MAJOR INDICATORS ARE RELEASED

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the pair moved in a 20 pip range and no economic data was released by the United States or Europe, making trading very difficult.



    Technical Outlook

    A 20 pip range is certainly not enough for proper technical analysis and holds almost no clues for future direction. Price has moved above 1.3830 but this cannot be considered a real break, especially because lately this level has been pierced several times. Our bias is neutral until a strong move occurs, which will most likely determine the pair’s next direction. For the moment 1.3760 is support and resistance sits at 1.3900.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day is pretty slow in terms of economic releases and the only indicator worth mentioning is the US Pending Home Sales which offers insights into the American house market and has the potential to strengthen the US Dollar if it posts a higher value than the anticipated 1.0%. The release is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT.


    GBP/USD

    Market participants expected the UK Retail Sales to generate strong volatility but after a quick surge up, the move slowed and then reversed almost completely, making Friday another difficult day for intraday trading.



    Technical Outlook


    Friday the bulls made another attempt to break the level of 1.6820 but this resulted in a bounce lower, showing that resistance is holding, thus increasing the chances of a move lower. We don’t expect major moves today, mainly because no major news comes out, but the levels to watch remain 1.6820 as resistance and 1.6750 as support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Price movement will be mainly affected by the US housing data and by the technical aspect of the market as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic or financial indicator releases.


    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ]

  11. #50
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