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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #801
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    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, BULLS STEP BACK INTO THE GAME


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: U.S. Consumer Price Index disappointed Friday by showing a change of only 0.2% (forecast 0.3%), but also the Retail Sales showed a 0.4% change compared to the expected 0.6%. All this combined with rumours of ECB tapering the QE, triggered a strong move up.



    Technical Outlook

    Friday’s move up was fast and strong and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, thus making the short term bias bullish. However, it must be noted that usually, moves like this one are followed by a counter move or a period of stagnation so we might see a descent into 1.0900 and the 50 EMA. If this support zone holds, the next destination will be 1.0950.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today there are no major releases scheduled for either the US Dollar or the Euro, so the technical aspect will prevail and will be the main market mover.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair bounced at support following weak U.S. CPI and Retail Sales data but the bullish advances weren’t substantial and overall we had a slow session, below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.2855 (1.2850) rejected price twice during the recent period and this may be an indication that the bears lack the strength to clearly end the uptrend. The upside is capped by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and as long as the pair is trading between these two barriers, our short term bias is neutral. A strong break will be probably followed by an extended move in that direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the United States and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases, so the technical side will decide the pair’s direction.

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  3. #802
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    FOREX NEWS: POUND AFFECTED BY INFLATION DATA, STRONG MOVES AHEAD


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday and had a strongly bullish session, without retracing lower. No major economic indicators were released, so most of the move was technical.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s move easily broke through 1.0950 resistance and came very close to 1.1000 psychological level, bringing the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic in overbought territory. The overextended position of the pair calls for a retracement lower (possibly into the 50 period EMA) although the bias is bullish for the medium term. However, it should be noted that from a longer term perspective the pair is still in a range.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of economic performance across the European Union. The forecast is a change of 0.5% and usually the release has a stronger impact if the actual number differs from expectations. Higher values strengthen the currency.

    At the same time the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts about the state of the German economy. It acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health, and higher numbers than the forecast 22.3 are usually beneficial for the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a slower session than the EUR/USD but maintained a bullish bias and managed to climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.2905 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without major releases.



    Technical Outlook

    If the current move above the 50 period EMA and 1.2905 can be sustained, the pair is likely to climb into 1.2965 in the near future. A break below the EMA and 1.2905 will open the door for 1.2855, a level which proved a strong support in the past and may reject falling prices higher. The oscillators are showing good bullish momentum, without being overbought, thus increasing the chances of an extended move north.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT we take a look at the always important British CPI, which is the main gauge of inflation in the UK. The indicator measures changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts a reading above the forecast, which for today is 2.6% (previous 2.3%).

  4. #803
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO POPS HIGHER. THE BULLS RUN THE SHOW


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair climbed for more than 100 pips yesterday, without retracing lower and the bulls scored a major victory by taking price way above 1.1000 psychological level.



    Technical Outlook

    At the time of writing the pair was hovering around the 1.1080 mark, after a strongly bullish session during which the pair moved straight up. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both extremely overbought and this calls for a retracement lower but the overall picture is bullish and we expect to see a move into the next area of resistance, located at 1.1100 – 1.1120.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at European inflation with the release of the Final version of the Consumer Price Index. This is the last version and tends to have the lowest impact but it shouldn’t be overlooked because it can generate increased volatility. The forecast for today is 1.9% and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    British inflation showed a better than expected value but this created just a quick spike up, followed by a drop and by another move that almost erased the earlier dip. Overall we had mixed movement, without a clear bias.



    Technical Outlook

    It looks like the pair is stuck in a range and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. Lately price doesn’t react to the level at 1.2900 and we saw it breached several times, so the boundaries of the range are 1.2855 as support and 1.2990 as resistance. Until the pair exits one of these boundaries, we expect more of this choppy movement, without a clear winner. The oscillators lack momentum and the 50 period EMA is flat, further showing the ranging state of the pair.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Average Earnings Index comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price that businesses pay for labor. If people are paid more, they tend to spend more, thus boosting consumer spending and this leads to increased economic activity and usually a stronger Pound. Today’s forecast is a change of 2.4%, while the previous was 2.3%.

  5. #804
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BIG HIT. ALL EYES ON POUND FOR RETAIL SALES RELEASE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Euro continued to strengthen and the pair showed another bullish session, moving above the long term resistance located at 1.1120. Despite the overextended condition of the pair, the buyers remained in control.



    Technical Outlook

    Since the latest move up started, only one candle was bearish and the pair climbed strongly, without any form of retracement lower. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are extremely overbought and this would normally call for a pullback but the US Dollar totally lacks strength, making us anticipate further advances north for the pair. The previous resistance at 1.1120 – 1.1100 may turn into support, while to the upside the next level of importance is 1.1240.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Unemployment Claims are released, showing the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. A higher number than the forecast 240K usually weakens the US Dollar and the opposite is true for a lower number but this indicator has a low-to-medium impact, mostly because it is released every week.


    GBP/USD

    British jobs data matched analysts’ expectations but US Dollar selling pushed the pair higher, into the top of the channel, at 1.2990.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is facing a strong resistance at 1.2990 – 1.3000. If this area can be surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.3050, followed by 1.3100 but we cannot rule out a bounce lower from the current resistance. However, the weakness showed by the US Dollar against most of its counterparts makes us anticipate a break of the level and a continuation higher.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Retail Sales are today’s highlight, released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.2% compared to the previous -1.8%. Sales made at retail levels represent the major part of consumer spending and usually a higher number strengthens the currency, because it shows increased economic activity.

  6. #805
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    FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE REACHED, RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the bulls pushed the pair higher, reaching a high at 1.1170. The U.S. Unemployment Claims showed a better than expected number, contributing to a limited extent to a pullback that tested 1.1120.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair retraced and breached the previous resistance at 1.1120 but at the moment this level can be considered support because rejection here is present (candles have long wicks in both their upper and lower sides). The bias remains clearly bullish and we expect further advances, with 1.1170 as first target, followed by 1.1240. Even if the pair breaks 1.1120 to the downside, the extent of the move lower should be limited.

    Fundamental Outlook

    There are no major economic releases scheduled for the last day of the trading week, so we expect price action to remain driven by the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the Pound benefited from a much better reading for the British Retail Sales (expected 1.2%, actual 2.3%) and this was the main catalyst for a move into key resistance at 1.3050.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair has reached an important resistance level at 1.3050 and now the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are approaching overbought levels. This is not a sure indication that price will bounce lower from here, because as seen numerous times before, price can continue higher or lower despite overbought or oversold levels. However, if we get a bounce south, this move will encounter support at 1.2990 followed by 1.2965. To the upside, a break of 1.3050 will make 1.3090 the immediate target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by economic indicators today, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

  7. #806
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    FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS. STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the buyers remained in control, taking the pair above the previous top at 1.1170. The economic scene was calm, without major releases and most of the move was technical.



    Technical Outlook

    After establishing a low at 1.1075 the pair started to move up, resuming the uptrend and breaking 1.1170. The first upper target is located at 1.1240 but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bearish divergence, which is present when price is making a higher high and the oscillator is making a lower high. This divergence and the overbought condition of the RSI are early warnings that price may bounce lower but overall the picture remains bullish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s only notable event is the Eurogroup Meeting, attended by Finance Ministers from the Euro Area member states, as well as other personalities from the political and financial scene. The impact on the currency varies depending on the matters discussed, but caution should be used throughout the day.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair erased an earlier drop occurred Thursday and moved back into the resistance at 1.3050. The bias is still bullish but bearish pressure has increased.



    Technical Outlook

    The sudden drop after the first encounter with 1.3050 resistance is a warning sign that the uptrend may be coming to a stop or at least that it is weaker than before. However, the bearish move was completely erased, so the bulls still have enough “juice” for a break of 1.3050; if that happens, the next key level is located at 1.3430 but it’s way too far to be reached during one day. A bounce at 1.3050 will probably take the pair into 1.2990 but our bias for today is mostly neutral.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases but United Kingdom representatives will attend the Eurogroup Meetings and this could generate increased volatility.

  8. #807
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO BOOSTED BY ‘TOO WEAK’ COMMENTS, POUND STILL ON THE FENCE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Euro got another boost yesterday, this time from Germany’s Merkel, who mentioned that she considers the currency “too weak”. The comment sent the pair higher, rebounding around 1.1170 and moving past 1.1240 resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the current move up is overextended, the Euro found new strength in Chancellor Merkel’s comments and now the resistance at 1.1240 is in danger. The overall picture remains bullish and the next target is located at 1.1340 if 1.1240 can be decisively broken. However, it is highly likely to see a bearish retracement before the pair can reach that zone. Bearish divergence is still present (price is making higher highs and the Relative Strength Index is making lower highs), thus increasing the chances of a pullback.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT. This is a survey with a very large sample size of about 7,000 German businesses, focused on the respondents’ view on current business conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The forecasted value is 113.1 and usually the Euro is strengthened by a higher than expected number but the impact of this indicator is not very high.


    GBP/USD

    The pair dipped below support, in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but soon after, it climbed back to where the market opened. Overall yesterday’s session lacked substantial developments or a clear bias.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair showed rejection near the 50 period EMA but also failed to move past 1.3050 again. These are indications that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side for the moment, although from a longer term perspective the pair is still in an uptrend. Today’s price direction will be mostly determined by Governor Carney’s testimony and the technical side will be secondary. The levels to watch remain 1.3050 followed by 1.3090 to the upside and the 50 period EMA to the downside.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the Inflation Report Hearings take place. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney and several MPC members will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation and economic outlook. The Pound can be strongly affected by the testimony but the impact cannot be accurately predicted, thus caution is recommended.

  9. #808
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MINOR SIGNS OF RECOVERY. FOMC MEETING MINUTES EYED


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey released yesterday posted a better than expected value but this didn’t help the Euro to push higher, mostly because the pair was already overbought for a long period.



    Technical Outlook

    The uptrend failed to break 1.1240 for the time being, although the pair climbed briefly above this resistance. In the short term it’s very likely to see a move into 1.1170, followed possibly by an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Overall the pair is in a clear uptrend but it is also under bearish pressure.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:45 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the First Conference on Financial Stability, organized in Madrid by the Bank of Spain. The speech may have an impact on the Euro and volatility may be affected, so caution is recommended.

    On the US Dollar side we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled for release at 6:00 pm GMT. The document contains details of the reasons behind the latest interest rate decision but more importantly, it can contain hints about future monetary policy. If this is the case, the US Dollar will be strongly affected so, as always, we recommend caution.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound slipped lower yesterday but movement was choppy and lacked a strong bias. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched but offered good support and pushed the pair higher.



    Technical Outlook

    The failure to break the 50 period EMA to the downside shows that the pair is not yet ready for a strong move south but on the other hand, the bulls also lack clear determination. It looks like the pair is still trapped in a range, but with a slightly bullish bias as long as it remains above the 50 period EMA. To the upside 1.3050 is still the first target and a strong resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by any major economic indicators today but the pair’s direction will be influenced by the contents of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

  10. #809
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON SHAKY GROUND: ADVANCES AGAINST POUND, LOSES GROUND AGAINST EURO


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair had a flat day before the release of the FOMC Minutes but volatility increased at the time of the announcement and the Dollar weakened. The support at 1.1170 is still intact and shows clear rejection at the time of writing.



    Technical Outlook

    As long as the pair remains above 1.1170 support and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish, anticipating a move into 1.1240 resistance and possibly above it. Almost all of yesterday’s price action took place very close to the mentioned support, so this level is clearly important for short term movement and a break would indicate that the bears are winning the battle and would make the 50 EMA the first target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today the two currencies will not be affected by major economic indicator releases but the OPEC Meetings take place in Vienna and this may influence the markets to a certain extent. Also, keep in mind that German and French banks will be closed in observance of Ascension Day.


    GBP/USD

    Overall the pair had a bearish session yesterday and the US Dollar losses seen at the time of the FOMC Minutes release were quickly erased. Price is now trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which is a bearish sign.



    Technical Outlook

    As long as the pair is trading below 1.2990 and below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish for the short term, anticipating a move into 1.2900. It must be noted that the Stochastic has moved into oversold territory, so a potential move into the mentioned support might be followed by a bounce higher. Overall the pair remains in an uptrend but control doesn’t clearly belong to either side.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, expected to show a change of 0.3%, same as previous. This version of the GDP is less important than the Preliminary but more important than the Final so we can expect to see some movement, especially if the actual change will differ from analysts’ forecast; better than expected numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

  11. #810
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    FOREX NEWS: CAN THE US DOLLAR BOUNCE BACK? U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT EYED


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the pair spent the entire session bouncing between support and resistance, without breaking either of them. The economic scene was calm, without major releases from either side.



    Technical Outlook

    By failing to break 1.1240, the pair printed a lower high yesterday and this suggests that we may see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average in the near future. Price remains in an uptrend for the time being but the bulls are starting to lose their clear control and a move below the 50 EMA would further weaken the uptrend. To the upside the first important barrier remains 1.1240, followed by 1.1340.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released, showing changes in the total value of goods and services generated by the economy. This is the main gauge of economic performance and usually, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.9% compared to the previous 0.7%.

    Also today the G7 Meetings start and will be attended by representatives of the 7 industrialized nations. The matters discussed may have an impact on the pair’s movement, so caution is recommended.


    GBP/USD

    British GDP numbers released yesterday disappointed and this reversed an earlier climb above 1.2990 resistance. Overall the session had choppy price action, with a bearish bias.



    Technical Outlook

    If the bears can push price lower, keeping the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we are likely to see a move into the support at 1.2900. A push above the 50 EMA will probably take the pair above 1.2990 – 1.3000 and closer to 1.3050. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend but the break of the 50 EMA signals a possible short term bear market.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by any important economic indicators today but UK and US representatives will attend the G7 Meetings and this can influence the pair overall.

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