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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #801
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    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, BULLS STEP BACK INTO THE GAME


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: U.S. Consumer Price Index disappointed Friday by showing a change of only 0.2% (forecast 0.3%), but also the Retail Sales showed a 0.4% change compared to the expected 0.6%. All this combined with rumours of ECB tapering the QE, triggered a strong move up.



    Technical Outlook

    Friday’s move up was fast and strong and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, thus making the short term bias bullish. However, it must be noted that usually, moves like this one are followed by a counter move or a period of stagnation so we might see a descent into 1.0900 and the 50 EMA. If this support zone holds, the next destination will be 1.0950.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today there are no major releases scheduled for either the US Dollar or the Euro, so the technical aspect will prevail and will be the main market mover.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair bounced at support following weak U.S. CPI and Retail Sales data but the bullish advances weren’t substantial and overall we had a slow session, below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.2855 (1.2850) rejected price twice during the recent period and this may be an indication that the bears lack the strength to clearly end the uptrend. The upside is capped by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and as long as the pair is trading between these two barriers, our short term bias is neutral. A strong break will be probably followed by an extended move in that direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the United States and the rest of Europe, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases, so the technical side will decide the pair’s direction.

  2. Under 1st Post -dynamo
  3. #802
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    FOREX NEWS: POUND AFFECTED BY INFLATION DATA, STRONG MOVES AHEAD


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average yesterday and had a strongly bullish session, without retracing lower. No major economic indicators were released, so most of the move was technical.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday’s move easily broke through 1.0950 resistance and came very close to 1.1000 psychological level, bringing the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic in overbought territory. The overextended position of the pair calls for a retracement lower (possibly into the 50 period EMA) although the bias is bullish for the medium term. However, it should be noted that from a longer term perspective the pair is still in a range.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of economic performance across the European Union. The forecast is a change of 0.5% and usually the release has a stronger impact if the actual number differs from expectations. Higher values strengthen the currency.

    At the same time the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is released, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts about the state of the German economy. It acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health, and higher numbers than the forecast 22.3 are usually beneficial for the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a slower session than the EUR/USD but maintained a bullish bias and managed to climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.2905 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without major releases.



    Technical Outlook

    If the current move above the 50 period EMA and 1.2905 can be sustained, the pair is likely to climb into 1.2965 in the near future. A break below the EMA and 1.2905 will open the door for 1.2855, a level which proved a strong support in the past and may reject falling prices higher. The oscillators are showing good bullish momentum, without being overbought, thus increasing the chances of an extended move north.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT we take a look at the always important British CPI, which is the main gauge of inflation in the UK. The indicator measures changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts a reading above the forecast, which for today is 2.6% (previous 2.3%).

  4. #803
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO POPS HIGHER. THE BULLS RUN THE SHOW


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair climbed for more than 100 pips yesterday, without retracing lower and the bulls scored a major victory by taking price way above 1.1000 psychological level.



    Technical Outlook

    At the time of writing the pair was hovering around the 1.1080 mark, after a strongly bullish session during which the pair moved straight up. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both extremely overbought and this calls for a retracement lower but the overall picture is bullish and we expect to see a move into the next area of resistance, located at 1.1100 – 1.1120.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at European inflation with the release of the Final version of the Consumer Price Index. This is the last version and tends to have the lowest impact but it shouldn’t be overlooked because it can generate increased volatility. The forecast for today is 1.9% and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro.


    GBP/USD

    British inflation showed a better than expected value but this created just a quick spike up, followed by a drop and by another move that almost erased the earlier dip. Overall we had mixed movement, without a clear bias.



    Technical Outlook

    It looks like the pair is stuck in a range and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. Lately price doesn’t react to the level at 1.2900 and we saw it breached several times, so the boundaries of the range are 1.2855 as support and 1.2990 as resistance. Until the pair exits one of these boundaries, we expect more of this choppy movement, without a clear winner. The oscillators lack momentum and the 50 period EMA is flat, further showing the ranging state of the pair.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Average Earnings Index comes out at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price that businesses pay for labor. If people are paid more, they tend to spend more, thus boosting consumer spending and this leads to increased economic activity and usually a stronger Pound. Today’s forecast is a change of 2.4%, while the previous was 2.3%.

  5. #804
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BIG HIT. ALL EYES ON POUND FOR RETAIL SALES RELEASE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Euro continued to strengthen and the pair showed another bullish session, moving above the long term resistance located at 1.1120. Despite the overextended condition of the pair, the buyers remained in control.



    Technical Outlook

    Since the latest move up started, only one candle was bearish and the pair climbed strongly, without any form of retracement lower. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are extremely overbought and this would normally call for a pullback but the US Dollar totally lacks strength, making us anticipate further advances north for the pair. The previous resistance at 1.1120 – 1.1100 may turn into support, while to the upside the next level of importance is 1.1240.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Unemployment Claims are released, showing the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits. A higher number than the forecast 240K usually weakens the US Dollar and the opposite is true for a lower number but this indicator has a low-to-medium impact, mostly because it is released every week.


    GBP/USD

    British jobs data matched analysts’ expectations but US Dollar selling pushed the pair higher, into the top of the channel, at 1.2990.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is facing a strong resistance at 1.2990 – 1.3000. If this area can be surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.3050, followed by 1.3100 but we cannot rule out a bounce lower from the current resistance. However, the weakness showed by the US Dollar against most of its counterparts makes us anticipate a break of the level and a continuation higher.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Retail Sales are today’s highlight, released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.2% compared to the previous -1.8%. Sales made at retail levels represent the major part of consumer spending and usually a higher number strengthens the currency, because it shows increased economic activity.

  6. #805
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    FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE REACHED, RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the bulls pushed the pair higher, reaching a high at 1.1170. The U.S. Unemployment Claims showed a better than expected number, contributing to a limited extent to a pullback that tested 1.1120.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair retraced and breached the previous resistance at 1.1120 but at the moment this level can be considered support because rejection here is present (candles have long wicks in both their upper and lower sides). The bias remains clearly bullish and we expect further advances, with 1.1170 as first target, followed by 1.1240. Even if the pair breaks 1.1120 to the downside, the extent of the move lower should be limited.

    Fundamental Outlook

    There are no major economic releases scheduled for the last day of the trading week, so we expect price action to remain driven by the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the Pound benefited from a much better reading for the British Retail Sales (expected 1.2%, actual 2.3%) and this was the main catalyst for a move into key resistance at 1.3050.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair has reached an important resistance level at 1.3050 and now the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are approaching overbought levels. This is not a sure indication that price will bounce lower from here, because as seen numerous times before, price can continue higher or lower despite overbought or oversold levels. However, if we get a bounce south, this move will encounter support at 1.2990 followed by 1.2965. To the upside, a break of 1.3050 will make 1.3090 the immediate target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected by economic indicators today, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

  7. #806
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    box - einstein 250x250
    FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS. STRONG RESISTANCE AHEAD


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the buyers remained in control, taking the pair above the previous top at 1.1170. The economic scene was calm, without major releases and most of the move was technical.



    Technical Outlook

    After establishing a low at 1.1075 the pair started to move up, resuming the uptrend and breaking 1.1170. The first upper target is located at 1.1240 but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bearish divergence, which is present when price is making a higher high and the oscillator is making a lower high. This divergence and the overbought condition of the RSI are early warnings that price may bounce lower but overall the picture remains bullish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s only notable event is the Eurogroup Meeting, attended by Finance Ministers from the Euro Area member states, as well as other personalities from the political and financial scene. The impact on the currency varies depending on the matters discussed, but caution should be used throughout the day.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair erased an earlier drop occurred Thursday and moved back into the resistance at 1.3050. The bias is still bullish but bearish pressure has increased.



    Technical Outlook

    The sudden drop after the first encounter with 1.3050 resistance is a warning sign that the uptrend may be coming to a stop or at least that it is weaker than before. However, the bearish move was completely erased, so the bulls still have enough “juice” for a break of 1.3050; if that happens, the next key level is located at 1.3430 but it’s way too far to be reached during one day. A bounce at 1.3050 will probably take the pair into 1.2990 but our bias for today is mostly neutral.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases but United Kingdom representatives will attend the Eurogroup Meetings and this could generate increased volatility.

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