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Thread: GDMFX - Technical News

  1. #1
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    GDMFX - Daily News

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    Forex News: A clash with resistance levels

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday we saw the US Dollar weaken against the Euro on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the US Non Manufacturing PMI which indicated a slower pace of economic growth and was perceived as bearish for the greenback.



    Technical Outlook

    The expected bullish retracement occurred yesterday and the pair traveled north for another encounter with 1.3650 resistance. We anticipate moves to the down side if this level holds but a break would make 1.3710 the next target for the pair and also the next place where price is likely to reverse and start moving south again.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Early at 08:55 am GMT the German Unemployment Change is released, offering insights into the job-market situation of Europe’s most influential economy. The expected figure is -1K compared to the previous 10K and usually smaller than expected numbers are beneficial for the Euro as they suggest that jobs are easily available and the economy is thriving.


    GBP/USD
    Although yesterday’s trading session started on a bearish note, the US data which came out during the day weakened the greenback and allowed the pair to climb towards 1.6440.



    Technical Outlook
    Since the beginning of the year, the pair has been moving to the down side and we consider this behavior to continue today as well. Very important for short term direction is the way price reacts near the current level of 1.6440; we anticipate a bounce lower and a move towards 1.6315 but a break to the upside is not out of the question and would indicate that bulls are not ready yet to give up their control.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom doesn’t release today any important economic indicators but the US will announce their Trade Balance at 1:30 pm GMT and this has the potential to be a high-impact indicator for both our pairs. The expected figure is -40.2B while the previous is -40.6B and usually higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the US economy as they indicate a smaller deficit.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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    Last edited by GDMFX; 02-19-2014 at 02:36 PM.

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  3. #2
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    Forex News: FOMC Statement – the day’s market mover

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started on a bearish note and support appeared to be broken but a worse than anticipated value of the US Durable Goods Orders weakened the US Dollar and created a sharp reversal.



    Technical Outlook
    The pair is still trading between 1.3650 support and 1.3710 resistance but yesterday’s failed attempt at breaking support may result in a bounce higher for another encounter with resistance and a potential continuation of last week’s bullish impulse. The FOMC statement is the day’s market mover and we might experience ranging price action, without a clear direction until the time of its release.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The FOMC Statement is the most important event of the day and comes out late at 7:00 pm GMT, together with the Federal Funds Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.25%. The Statement will contain important insights about the reasons which stood behind the rate vote and also an economic outlook which may offer hints about future rates. Discussions about the monetary stimulus program will most likely generate very strong movement in the market so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


    GBP/USD
    United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product met expectations yesterday, coming out with a value of 2.8% but the event created very difficult to trade price action, reversing the direction several times in a short while.



    Technical Outlook
    The strong resistance created at 1.6600 was touched yesterday but price was pushed lower signifying that the power of the bulls is starting to fade. However, we are still in a medium-term uptrend so moves to the upside are very possible. We favor slightly the down side but acknowledge the fact that price action today will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Statement.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry luncheon in Edinburgh; almost all his public speeches generate volatility in the market, depending on the matters discussed so we recommend caution at the time of the event. Of course the FOMC Statement will strongly affect the pair as well.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  4. #3
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    Forex News: Support levels ahead – retracements anticipated

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday the German Consumer Price Index showed a decrease to 1.3% from the previous 1.4% and this fact, combined with the Fed decision to reduce the QE value generated a totally bearish day for the pair.



    Technical Outlook
    Although we anticipated a move lower and a touch of 1.3550 support, we didn’t expect this move to be so quick and the entire distance to be traveled in a single day. At the moment price is testing 1.3550 support but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition on an hourly chart as well as on a four hour chart and we believe that a retracement is in order before any advances to the down side can be made. Of course, a decisive break of support will probably trigger additional bearish movement.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The Consumer Price Index for the entire Euro Zone will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and is anticipated to increase from the current 0.8% to 0.9%, a fact which would strengthen the Euro. However, because the German CPI was released a day before, today’s event may have a limited impact, especially if the actual value will not be a surprising one.

    GBP/USD
    The effects of the US monetary stimulus reduction were seen throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair dropped on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall it was a day with clear direction and no surprising whipsaws or reversals.



    Technical Outlook
    Yesterday’s bearish impulse brought the pair close to the support located at 1.6440 but a break didn’t occur and the bearish momentum faded away. If today the pair will touch this support once again without breaking it, we anticipate moves higher, especially if the Relative Strength Index will cross the oversold level. A break of 1.6440 to the down side would mean an important victory for the bears and may generate an extended move south.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be probably driven by the technical aspect of the market.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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    Forex News: Important developments expected for both pairs

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a mixed trading session, mostly because no major economic indicators were released. Price moved slowly to the down side but the previous low was not broken so the US Dollar didn’t make significant advances against its counterpart.



    Technical Outlook
    We maintain our bearish stance and anticipate a move lower towards the important support located at 1.3400. The resistance at 1.3550 was still not touched so price can move into that zone before dropping and a lot will depend on the economic indicators released today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Retail Sales are released and anticipated to change from the previous 1.4% to -0.7%; such a decrease would weaken the Euro since sales made at a retail level are crucial for economy and represent the major part of consumer spending. Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. will release the Non Farm Employment Change, providing an early situation of the jobs market in the United States. A decrease is anticipated from the previous 238K to 191K but this indicator is released by a private company and has a much milder impact than the Government situation which will be released 2 days later.

    GBP/USD
    The pair dropped in close vicinity of the support located at 1.6250 but a better than expected value of the British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index strengthened the Pound and drove the pair higher.



    Technical Outlook

    The Relative Strength Index is still near the 30 level which suggests an oversold condition and potential moves north, but price is trading below 1.6315 which may act as resistance. Also, the major support located at 1.6250 is close to the current price and may reject it higher if touched, so the next direction is still uncertain and will probably be decided by today’s fundamental events.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The British Services PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an anticipated increase from the previous 58.8 to 59.1. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector, is a leading indicator of economic health and has the potential to strengthen the Pound if better than expected numbers are posted. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  6. #5
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    Forex News: Two Interest Rates – a boost of volatility

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday’s session was very difficult to trade and was characterized by a lot of sharp reversals, especially on the lower time frames. The Euro Zone Retail Sales came out worse than anticipated but so did the ADP Non Farm Employment report and these facts generated quick changes of direction.



    Technical Outlook
    The resistance located at 1.3550 was touched yesterday and price is showing rejection on a four hour chart (long upper wick of the candle that touched resistance). From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a drop towards 1.3400 but today the ECB Press Conference is held and the market will move strongly depending on Mario Draghi’s attitude, making the technical aspect somewhat secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Without a doubt the most important event of the day is the ECB Press Conference which takes place at 1:30 pm GMT. Although the ECB will announce the Interest Rate (not expected to change from the current 0.25%) at 12:45 pm GMT, this event will be overshadowed by Mario Draghi’s speech at the conference. He will also answer audience questions and his answers will be analyzed in detail by traders around the world, trying to anticipate the next direction, a fact which will generate sudden moves and possible sharp reversals. We recommend caution if trading during the press conference.


    GBP/USD
    The British Services PMI came out yesterday with a worse than anticipated value, making the pair drop to touch the support located at 1.6250. However, later in the day, disappointing US data took price higher again.



    Technical Outlook
    Similar to our EUR/USD outlook, we consider that price is still aiming for a move lower but the day’s fundamental events may overthrow this scenario. The resistance located at 1.6315 is holding so far but the same is true for the 1.6250. A breakout is imminent but the direction will be decided by fundamental factors.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but the event usually creates volatility even if no change occurs. At the same time the Asset Purchase Facility value is released; this represents the amount of money the Bank of England can use to purchase open market assets with the purpose of stabilizing the currency. The current value of 375B is not expected to change but a decrease is often considered beneficial for the currency and can drive the pair higher.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  7. #6
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    Forex News: The day’s headline – the US Non Farm Payrolls

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: During yesterday’s Press Conference, ECB President Mario Draghi commented that inflationary risks remain limited and that he doesn’t see the need for additional monetary stimulus as the economy is showing some signs of recovery. As a result the Euro strengthened against the US Dollar and 1.3550 resistance was decisively broken.



    Technical Outlook
    After yesterday’s strong bullish move, we anticipate a consolidation period during which price will move either sideways or to the down side. Once this period is over, the bulls may take the pair into the resistance located at 1.3650 but a failed attempt to break this level will most likely bring the pair back to 1.3550. Just like yesterday, today’s trading session will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The most important US report regarding the employment situation is released today: the Non Farm Payrolls (also known as Non Farm Employment Change). The report shows the change in the number of employed people in the US non farm sector and is considered a huge market mover. Almost always the impact is violent and immediate so we recommend caution if trading at the time. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 184K while the previous was 74K; better numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar as they indicate a thriving economy.


    GBP/USD
    The Bank of England did not modify the Interest Rate (0.50%) and some volatility could be seen at the time of the release but no substantial developments took place and resistance is still holding.



    Technical Outlook
    In the second part of yesterday’s trading session the control belonged to the bulls and we saw price move above 1.6315 resistance. However, we don’t consider this move will be able to generate additional up side pressure especially because price stalled after moving above the level. We are neutral on the pair for the moment, in anticipation of the US employment situation report which will probably decide the next medium term direction.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The UK Manufacturing Production is released t 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous 0.0% to 0.6%. The indicator measures the change in the total output generated by manufacturers and can strengthen the Pound if better than expected values are posted. Of course the US Non Farm Payrolls will be the day’s headline and will directly affect the pair.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  8. #7
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    Forex News: The lack of major data releases causes slow price action

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Friday the pair continued to climb on the back of worse than anticipated numbers shown by the US Non Farm Employment report and price came very close to 1.3650 resistance, consolidating the short term control of the bulls.



    Technical Outlook

    As seen on a Daily chart, price is approaching a confluence zone created by the resistance located at 1.3650 and the trend line drawn from last year’s high. Usually confluence zones are hard to break so today we might see a bearish move. The Relative Strength Index is also approaching an overbought condition on the four hour chart, making further upside movement more difficult.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day lacks major economic releases and the only noteworthy indicator is the French Industrial Production which comes out early at 07:45 am GMT and is expected to decrease from the previous 1.3% to -0.1%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro but the indicator usually has a mild impact on the pair.


    GBP/USD
    The control belonged to the bulls during Friday’s trading session and the move up was mostly generated by US Dollar weakness, not by Pound strength.



    Technical Outlook
    Friday’s bullish move brought the pair once again above 1.6315 and made 1.6440 the first target for today’s trading session. However, we consider that a touch of this resistance will most likely generate a bounce lower, not a break to the upside, especially considering the fact that usually Mondays are slow days and strong levels are rarely broken.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases and this contributes to our belief that a sow day is ahead.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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    Forex News: Janet Yellen’s testimony – a reason for volatility

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session had low volume and price didn’t travel a considerable distance but the bulls were in control for the most part of the day and the pair touched the resistance located at 1.3650.



    Technical Outlook
    Although touched, the confluence zone created by the down trend line and 1.3650 horizontal resistance is still holding but yesterday’s slow movement doesn’t offer enough clues about the next direction. Confluence zones are usually hard to break so moves to the down side are very possible but a break will most likely add more bullish pressure to the market.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Today at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech before the House Financial Services Committee regarding the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. During the second part of her testimony, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by members of the Committee and this is usually the time when the biggest volatility can occur, depending on her attitude and answers.


    GBP/USD
    The pair traded mostly sideways yesterday and neither bulls nor bears were in clear control. All moves to one side were quickly reversed and we attribute this ranging price action to the lack of economic indicators.



    Technical Outlook
    Price is likely to pick up some speed during today’s trading session and we anticipate a move into the resistance zone created around 1.6440 followed by a fall towards 1.6315. Even if price will move to the down side, we don’t expect it to travel the entire distance to 1.6315 in one day, except if unscheduled events occur.

    Fundamental Outlook
    This is the second day during which the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic or financial indicators so price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors and by Janet Yellen’s testimony.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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    Forex News: True break of resistance or single impulse?

    EUR/USD

    Forex News: The US Dollar weakened considerably during yesterday’s trading session as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen commented that recovery of the US employment situation is “far from complete”. This allowed the pair to move above resistance and consolidated the control of the bulls.



    Technical Outlook
    The confluence zone created by 1.3650 resistance and the down trend line drawn from last year’s high was broken yesterday and this is a sign that further advances to the upside are probable. However, the Relative Strength Index touched the 70 level which indicates an overbought condition and a possible move to the downside. Today’s price action will show us if the break was a true one and the pair is re-testing the broken level or if it was just an impulse generated by Yellen’s comments.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is announced at 10:00 am GMT and a big decrease is expected from the previous 1.8% to -0.2%. The indicator shows the change in the productivity of the industrial sector and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the Euro, driving price higher.


    GBP/USD
    The pair was also affected by Yellen’s comments and as a result the US Dollar weakened against the Pound, triggering a break of resistance.



    Technical Outlook
    The resistance located at 1.6440 was broken again yesterday and lately price seems to respect it less, moving through it with relative ease. A successful re-test of the broken level followed by a bounce would indicate that the level has turned into support once more and that further moves to the upside will follow. The Relative Strength Index is in close vicinity to the overbought level so it is possible to see moves below 1.6440 during today’s trading session.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event of the day for the Pound will be the release of the Inflation Report and the Press Conference held by Governor Mark Carney regarding the Report. Bank of England’s projection about inflation and a two year economic growth outlook will be contained in the report and Carney’s attitude during the conference will be closely watched by market participants in an attempt to identify the pair’s next direction. Both events take place at 10:30 am GMT and we recommend caution if trading at the time.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    More articles from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

  11. #10
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    Forex News: US Retail Sales, the day’s market-mover

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair dropped sharply during yesterday’s trading session as the Euro Zone Industrial Production posted worse than expected numbers, indicating decreased activity and a slowdown of the economic recovery.



    Technical Outlook

    The latest move above 1.3650 failed to produce the expected results and price returned below resistance on the back of disappointing economic data. This shifts the balance of power in favor of the bears once more but the pair faces support at 1.3550 and moves to the north are a distinct possibility since no clear trend is in place. Today’s important US events will have a strong impact on price movement, overshadowing the technical side.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The US Retail Sales are released at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to slightly decrease from the previous 0.2% to 0.0%. The retail sector represents a major part of the entire consumer spending which in turn represents the biggest part of the US economy so better than expected values usually strengthen the greenback. Later in the day, at 3:30 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the speech has the potential to be a major market mover so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound strengthened substantially against the US Dollar after the Inflation Report showed the Bank of England has a positive outlook regarding economic growth and hinted about future interest rate increases.



    Technical Outlook

    After breaking 1.6440, price stalled there for a while before moving furiously to the upside. Now the important resistance located at 1.6600 is very close but the Relative Strength Index is showing a clear overbought condition on a four hour chart. After such a strong move, a retracement is in order, even if the medium term control clearly belongs to the bears. The pair’s movement will be highly affected by the fundamental aspect and the technical part will be somewhat secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Although the United Kingdom didn’t schedule the release of any economic or financial indicators, the US Retail Sales and Janet Yellen’s testimony will most likely generate volatility and sharp moves.

    Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

    The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

    Source of article from the [Only registered and activated users can see links. ].

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