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Thread: GDMFX - Weekly Commentary

  1. #191
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    WEEKLY ANALYSIS: BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES, POSSIBLE DOWNTREND DEVELOPS AS THE US DOLLAR GAINS TRACTION


    EUR/USD


    Weekly Analysis: Despite key economic data being released last week, the pair remained in a relatively tight range, bouncing between 1.1600 support and 1.1700 resistance for the entire week.



    Technical Outlook

    Price is consolidating between support and resistance, which is a sign that the pair is preparing for a breakout. The latest move is bearish, testing 1.1600, so if the level can be surpassed, we expect to see a move into the next support, located at 1.1450. On the other hand, if the current support rejects price, the immediate target will become the top of last week’s range (1.1700), followed by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. As long as price is trading below 1.1700 and below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The week starts with the Eurogroup Meetings, scheduled Monday and continues with the ECOFIN Meetings scheduled Tuesday. These meetings are closed to the press but participants usually speak to journalists during the day and a formal statement is released at the end of each meeting. The impact is usually negligible on the Euro, unless special developments take place.

    Wednesday we don’t have anything major on the economic calendar and Thursday’s only notable event is the release of the EU Economic Forecasts, which is a document released by the European Commission, containing an economic outlook for the EU member states for the next 2 years.

    Friday U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day and the only important release will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which is a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. As you can see, we have a slow week ahead, so the technical aspect will probably take center stage.


    GBP/USD

    Last week the Bank of England decided to raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% but the market expected this hike to be followed by three more next year. However, the Bank’s statement showed that it was planning only two more hikes and this was received as disappointing news, thus weakening the Pound.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is currently testing the support at 1.3050 but it is still ranging and a clear direction hasn’t yet emerged. The 50 days EMA is also flat, supporting the view that the pair is range-bound. The current level of support (1.3050) will be very important early in the week because a break of it will show that bearish pressure is increasing and that we will probably see a more directional behavior, with 1.2950 as first target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound has a light economic week ahead, with only 2 notable releases. Thursday the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will release an Estimate version of the British Gross Domestic Product and Friday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out, showing changes in the value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. These indicators are not known to have a high impact on the currency, but if the actual numbers differs a lot form expectations, the effect will increase.

  2. Under 1st Post -dynamo
  3. #192
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    WEEKLY ANALYSIS: PAIRS STILL IN LIMBO. LOOKING FORWARD TO INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES DATA FOR A VOLATILITY BOOST


    EUR/USD


    Weekly Analysis: In the second part of last week the pair showed some signs of directional movement but overall it is still in a range, bouncing between 1.1600 and 1.1700. The lack of major economic releases contributed to the slow movement.



    Technical Outlook

    The sellers have tried several times to break 1.1600 support zone in the last period but all attempts have failed and now price is moving north, towards the confluence zone created by the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, the resistance at 1.1700 and the bearish trend line seen on the chart above. This confluence zone will be tough to break, considering that lately the pair has been moving very slow, but on the other hand, a break would show that finally the balance is tilting towards one side and that more directional movement will follow.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Monday will be a slow economic week for the pair but action picks up Tuesday with the release of the Eurozone Flash Gross Domestic Product and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is a survey of about 300 institutional investors and analysts that asks respondents to give a 6-month outlook for the German economy.

    Wednesday the focus shifts on the US Dollar for the release of the Consumer Price Index (which is one of the main gauges of inflation) and the Retail Sales, which represent the main part of consumer spending and thus are very important for the currency itself.

    Thursday the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will show the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding overall business conditions in the district, and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Building Permits that will offer insights into the construction activity. Apart from a few major releases, we have another slow week ahead, with the technical side taking center stage.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound retraced higher last week, erasing some of the losses incurred a week before but the pair is still in a range, without a clear trend.



    Technical Outlook

    After the bounce at 1.3050 support, price moved higher and reached the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which is flat, showing that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. For this week we expect to see a breakout of either 1.3250 resistance or 1.3050 support and if that happens, it will probably trigger additional movement in the direction of the break. Until price moves outside one of the two levels, the pair is ranging and we can expect to see further choppiness.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The first important release of the week will be the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a strong impact on the Pound, so caution is recommended.

    Wednesday’s highlight will be the release of the Average Earnings Index, a report that shows changes in the price that employers pay for labor and the final economic data of the week is scheduled Thursday in the form of the British Retail Sales numbers, which usually have a high impact on the Pound.

  4. #193
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    WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THE WEEK AHEAD: ECB’S DRAGHI AND BOE’S CARNEY TESTIFY, U.S. PREPARES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY


    EUR/USD


    Weekly Analysis: Buying interest around the Euro increased last week and the pair moved above several types of resistance, finishing the week more than 100 pips higher than it started.



    Technical Outlook

    The bulls managed to break the confluence zone created by 1.1700 resistance, the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and the bearish trend line seen on the chart above. This shows that momentum is clearly on the Euro side, so we expect to see a touch of the resistance at 1.1875 early in the week. If the level can be surpassed, the next target will become the key level at 1.2000 but it could take more than a week for the bulls to cover the entire distance. A move below the confluence zone mentioned earlier would invalidate this scenario.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The week opens Monday with the double testimony of ECB President Draghi before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. This is likely an event that will generate increased volatility on Euro pairs, so caution is advised.

    Tuesday the economic scene will be calm and Wednesday the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the rate vote. More importantly, if the document offers hints about future rate changes, then we will probably see strong USD movement.

    Thursday U.S. banks will be closed in celebration of Thanksgiving Day and on the Euro side the Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be the most notable releases. The week finishes Friday with the German IFO Business Climate, which is a survey with a large sample size of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to rate current economic conditions and to offer a 6-month outlook.


    GBP/USD

    Price action was choppy, with a bullish bias last week and the pair didn’t manage to break out of the range. British data was mixed, with lower than expected CPI but better employment numbers.



    Technical Outlook

    The 50 days Exponential Moving Average is flat and price is bouncing between 1.3050 support and 1.3250 resistance; also, the oscillators are moving without clear momentum and all this is indicative of a ranging market. The last daily candle shows a long wick in its upper part and this increases the probability of a bounce lower but overall trading will remain range-bound until a clear breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3250 followed by 1.3320 as resistance and the lower part of the range is represented by 1.3050.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a slow economic week ahead, with only three notable events: Tuesday the Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing differences in value between spending and income for government and public companies. The same day, Bank of England Governor Carney will testify before the Parliament's Treasury Committee on inflation and economic outlook

    The last release of the week will be the Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product scheduled Thursday. The GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, however this version is not as important as the Preliminary, which was already released.

  5. #194
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    WEEKLY ANALYSIS: EURO EXPLODES TO THE UPSIDE, CAPITALIZING ON A FRAIL US DOLLAR. KEY RESISTANCE EYED


    EUR/USD


    Weekly Analysis: Euro strength combined with US Dollar weakness across the board generated a bullish week and a break of key resistance. The pair has exited the consolidation phase but the long term uptrend has not yet resumed.



    Technical Outlook

    After breaking the bearish trend line seen on the chart above, the pair consolidated between the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and 1.1875 resistance. Now the consolidation is over and we are dealing with a clear bullish breakout above 1.1875, meaning that the key level at 1.2000 is the pair’s first destination. This is a technical resistance as well as a psychological level (big, round number) and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought, so we expect to see bounces lower if the pair reaches it.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The week opens relatively slow, with nothing major for the Euro for the first two days of the week. For the US Dollar the highlights will be the New Home Sales scheduled Monday and followed Tuesday by the Consumer Confidence survey. These releases are not known to have a huge impact but usually a higher number strengthens the currency.

    Wednesday action picks up with the Preliminary version of the German Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and has a hefty impact on the shared currency because the German economy is the strongest in the Eurozone. Another important release is the Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, which is the main gauge of overall economic performance and later the same day, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on U.S. economic outlook.

    Thursday the European Flash version of the Consumer Price Index will be released and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of purchasing managers that tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic conditions in the Manufacturing sector.


    GBP/USD

    Broad US Dollar selling was the main reason for last week’s continued climb. The pair has now moved into medium term resistance, which makes it susceptible to a bounce lower.



    Technical Outlook

    For the last few weeks the pair has traded inside the range created by 1.3320 resistance and 1.3050 support. Currently it’s testing the upper boundary but the last two daily candles are small and with long wicks, showing that bullish momentum is fading, so we may see a bounce that could find support around 1.3250 or even at the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a clear break of 1.3320 will increase the probability of a move into 1.3450.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Bank Stress Test Results will come out Tuesday, offering insights into the financial stability of 7 banks and building societies. The same day the Bank of England will release their Financial Stability Report, which assesses the potential risks for the financial system.

    The last event of the week is scheduled Friday in the form of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is a leading indicator of economic health and optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector.

  6. #195
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    WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE LAST MAJOR EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE YEAR

    EUR/USD

    The US Dollar showed modest gains in the beginning of last week but the pair then climbed on the back of U.S. political turmoil. Overall price action was choppy and characterized by reversals on the lower time frames.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is supported by a bullish trend line that will probably push price into the key resistance at 1.2000. On the other hand, if the bears manage to break this trend line, we will most likely see a drop into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average where the next direction will be decided. The pair’s behavior this week will be heavily influenced by the U.S. political scene and by the jobs data released later in the week.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The week starts off slow, without any major releases scheduled Monday, while Tuesday the only notable economic data will be the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI), which is a survey that shows the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the Services sector.

    Wednesday action picks up and we take a first look at United States jobs situation, with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report shows the estimated change in the number of employed people in the U.S., apart from the farming sector and government. A larger number of employed people indicates that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future and this in turn strengthens the currency.

    Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference in Frankfurt at the Bank of International Settlements and the economic week will end Friday with the most important U.S. employment data: the Non-Farm Payrolls. This report shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming industry and has a very strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher numbers strengthen the currency because employment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn represents a hefty part of overall economic activity.

    GBP/USD

    Renewed optimism regarding Brexit negotiations took the pair above long term resistance (1.3450), reaching a weekly high at 1.3550. Some rejection was seen during the last day of the week but momentum is still on the buyers’ side.



    Technical Outlook

    The bias is bullish but the pair is capped by last week’s high at 1.3550 and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought territory, warning that a deeper retracement south may follow. If early in the week the bears can break 1.3450, we may see a move back into the 1.3320 zone but on the other hand, if 1.3450 becomes support, we will probably see a move into 1.3600 area.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The week is rather slow for the Pound, with only a few notable releases. The Construction PMI and Services PMI will come out Monday and Tuesday respectively, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in their sector.

    The last announcement of the week is the Manufacturing Production scheduled Friday. This indicator shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and has a positive impact on the Pound if it posts a higher than anticipated reading; the opposite is true for a lower reading. As always, the U.S. releases will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

  7. #196
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    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THREE INTEREST RATES – THREE REASONS FOR HUGE VOLATILITY

    EUR/USD


    Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the US Dollar that showed signs of recovery and took the pair into 1.1700 area. Most of the move was technical as the economic scene was slow and without market moving events.



    Technical Outlook

    After the break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, price remained below 1.1875 and descended below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Although last week closed below the 50 EMA, the last daily candle has a very long wick and a very small body, which is a sign of indecision, so the next direction is difficult to anticipate. For now the first support is located at 1.1700 and resistance sits at 1.1875; if price climbs above the 50 EMA, showing that the initial break was false, we expect a move into 1.1875.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The first notable releases of the week are scheduled Tuesday: the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (survey of about 300 German investors and analysts regarding economic conditions) and the U.S. Producer Price Index (shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services).

    Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their interest rate, which is expected to increase from <1.25% to <1.50%. A Rate Statement will come out at the same time, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision and half an hour later, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate. Given that this is the final rate announcement of the year, we may see strong movement on the US Dollar.

    Thursday it’s the ECB’s turn to announce the interest rate (no change expected) and soon after, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference during which he will answer unscripted questions from journalists. Also Thursday the U.S. Retail Sales will come out, so this will be another day with possibly high volatility. The week ends Friday without any notable releases.



    GBP/USD

    The Pound had a choppy week and was affected by Brexit talks that generated periods of irregular volatility and reversals on the lower time frames. The bias was bearish but the pair remained above support.



    Technical Outlook

    After bouncing at 1.3320, the pair climbed above 1.3450 only to move back below it again, showing choppy price action. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by any news regarding Brexit negotiations but the levels to watch remain 1.3320 as support and 1.3550 as resistance (for now 1.3450 doesn’t seem too important). A break of 1.3320 and the 50 EMA will open the door for a move into 1.3050 but this could take more than a week.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a busier week than usual, starting with the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

    Wednesday the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price that employers pay for labor. The indicator has inflationary implications because usually if businesses pay more for labor they tend to increase the price of their products. If the actual change surpasses expectations, this usually strengthens the Pound.

    Thursday the British Retail Sales will come out and the Bank of England will announce the rate decision, which creates volatility even if no change occurs. As always, the U.S. releases will have a strong impact on the pair so caution is recommended.

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