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Thread: GDMFX - Weekly Commentary

  1. #41
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    dynamo - First and lasp post every thread AXITrader aff
    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CHRISTMAS WEEK IS HERE, BRINGING IRREGULAR VOLATILITY


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar headed for gains last week as Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted that next year a rate hike is likely to happen. Support levels were broken after a bounce off of the daily 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



    Technical Outlook

    Price action is likely to become irregular due to the Christmas Holiday, but the important levels to watch this week are 1.2280 and 1.2360. These levels represented support and the recent break could turn them into resistance if price will climb to touch them again. Price is in a clear downtrend, trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the first major support now sitting at 1.2040 (visible on a weekly chart); however, we don’t believe this level will be touched this week.

    Fundamental Outlook

    As expected, the week ahead will be governed by the Christmas Holiday and will lack major economic activity. Tuesday is the busiest day of the week, with the focus being on the American Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than three years) and the New Home Sales. Wednesday no major announcements are made while Thursday and Friday most banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Christmas.


    GBP/USD

    Last week British CPI disappointed while Retail Sales surged and this created mixed price action, with the pair confined between support and resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    During this month price moved two times below the support at 1.5590 and both times the bulls quickly stepped in, taking the pair above the level. This shows that we are dealing with strong support which may push the pair higher, into the first resistance which is located at 1.5750. On the other hand, a break of 1.5590 followed by a successful re-test will most likely trigger a move towards 1.5420 which is the next support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will announce the Mortgage Approvals which is a leading indicator of demand for the house market and could strengthen the Pound if the value will exceed analysts’ expectations. Other than this, the week is calm and no major indicators are released; Thursday and Friday UK Banks will be closed, celebrating Christmas.

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  3. #42
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    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE WEEK BETWEEN YEARS COMES WITH LOW VOLUME AND SCARCE ECONOMIC RELEASES


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: Last week price action was heavily influenced by the Christmas Holiday and the market was paused during the 25th of December. All week price suffered from low volume and irregular movement.



    Technical Outlook

    The irregular price action seen last week is likely to continue this week as the New Year will be the main concern of most traders around the world. The pair is in a downtrend, trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.2280. The first support is located at 1.2040 but probably we won’t see a break this week as the market will be thin for most of the period. Our bias is neutral considering that this week the year changes and all pairs will be affected.

    Fundamental Outlook

    As expected we have very few economic releases this week; here are the most important: Tuesday the US Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinion of about 5,000 American households about current economic conditions, but also their expectations for the near future.

    Wednesday German Banks will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Eve and the US Unemployment Claims will be the day’s single notable event. Thursday is the first day of 2015 and the market will be closed, price will come to a stop and no economic indicators will be released, while Friday is another slow day with the only important event being the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.


    GBP/USD

    Last week was mostly controlled by the bears on the back of disappointing British economic data but soon Christmas made its presence known, volume dropped and the pair came to a stop Thursday, while Friday’s trading session lacked strong movement.



    Technical Outlook

    Some movement is likely to be seen throughout the week but we don’t expect any substantial advances as the New Year will take center stage and volume will probably remain low. The important levels to watch this week are located at 1.5590 (resistance) 1.5485 (support), while price behavior at the current level (1.5540) will probably determine the next direction. Our bias is neutral for this pair as well, and we expect to see irregular movement; keep in mind that Thursday the market will be closed.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The only noteworthy British release is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled Friday. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers focused on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.

  4. #43
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    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE DOLLAR REACHES NEW HIGHS


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the Euro weakened the most in more than 4 years against the US Dollar; a big role in the drop was played by the fact that the ECB talked about large scale bond purchases and ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that he cannot rule our deflation.



    Technical Outlook

    We saw another bearish week as the pair managed to move below the important support at 1.2040. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart moved below the 30 level and this shows an overextended condition, signaling that a retracement is likely to occur. The same condition is shown by the Stochastic indicator (11,6,6) which is moving well below the 20 level. First support is located at 1.1875 (better seen on a Weekly chart) but during the week we expect pullbacks above 1.2040.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The German Preliminary CPI is released Monday, showing the state of German inflation which is an important part of European inflation. This will be followed Wednesday by the European CPI Flash Estimate which offers an early look into European inflation; since the ECB is struggling to raise inflation levels, these releases will have a high impact on the Euro. A privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing) will release the same day the Non Farm Employment Change which is a report that tries to mimic the Government data released 2 days later. Later the same day the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, showing details about Fed’s latest meeting.

    Friday the most important U.S. jobs related data comes out: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). This report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and almost always the impact on the Dollar is huge as more jobs are indicative of increased consumer spending in the near future.

    GBP/USD

    The pair moved substantially lower last week as the British economy showed clear signs of contraction, but also because market participants speculate about a potential U.S. rate increase early in the year.



    Technical Outlook

    Last week the pair experienced a huge drop and such a move is likely to trigger some sort of bullish reaction in the form of a retracement. This retracement can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.5420 but the first lower target is located at 1.5260 which acted as strong support in the past (better seen on a Weekly chart).

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Construction and Services PMIs are released Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Thursday by the Official Bank Rate. Lately a lot of speculation is surrounding the British interest rate and although a change is not expected, the event is likely to generate strong movement. The last Pound-affecting event of the week is Friday’s Manufacturing Production release which shows the total value of output produced by the British manufacturing sector.

  5. #44
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    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARS STILL IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE INCREASES


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: Last week belonged to the bears on the back of lower inflation numbers posted by the European economy and a hawkish Fed that hinted towards a potential rate hike during the first part of the year.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair moved below 1.1875, creating the fourth consecutive bearish week. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are oversold on a Daily chart and are starting to move upwards, while on a Weekly chart there is still no sign of bullish movement of the two indicators. The most important levels for this week’s price action are 1.1875 and 1.2040 to the upside and the low at 1.1750 followed by 1.1640 to the downside; the picture remains bearish, although retracements are still due.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Monday and Tuesday are calm days for the Euro and US Dollar as no major indicators are released. Wednesday the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out and the Dollar is likely to be strongly affected as the indicator is the main gauge of consumer spending which in turn is a vital part of the economy.

    Thursday the American Producer Price Index is released; this indicator shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and has inflationary implications. The same day the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index comes out; this is a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district. Friday’s main event is the release of the American Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a hefty impact on the Dollar. The same day, the University of Michigan will release a Preliminary version of their Consumer Sentiment survey.


    GBP/USD

    The pair remained in a strong downtrend as price moved below support and the bears maintained their control for the fourth week in a row. The British economy posted worse than expected numbers and this contributed to the drop.



    Technical Outlook

    During the week ahead we expect a move into the recently broken level at 1.5260. A bounce there would make 1.5035 the immediate target, followed by the psychological and technical support at 1.5000. A break of 1.5260 would open the door for a bullish retracement close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

    Fundamental Outlook

    This week lacks major British announcements and the only important indicator comes out Tuesday in the form of the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation. As always, the pair will be directly influenced by the U.S. data released throughout the week.

  6. #45
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    down right??

  7. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluetrader84 View Post
    down right??
    Hi bluetrader84,

    Could you let us know what do you mean by that?

  8. #47
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    [size=medium]FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB TO DECIDE THE NEXT DIRECTION OF THE SHARED CURRENCY


    EUR/USD

    Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the markets were shaken by Swiss National Bank’s sudden and unexpected decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor which caped the pair at 1.20. As a result the Swiss Franc appreciated tremendously against its peers and the market showed unprecedented volatility.





    Technical Outlook
    On Daily and Weekly charts, both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are indicating an oversold condition of the pair, but considering the latest developments, the technical side is less important than the fundamental. The next potential support is located at 1.1380 but the pair last visited this level in 2003 so the importance of this level cannot be assessed. As for resistance, the first level of interest is 1.1640, followed by 1.1875. The environment remains strongly bearish, with retracements expected.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Monday U.S. Banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no major indicators are scheduled. Tuesday’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors regarding their 6-month economic outlook.
    Wednesday is a slow day as far as U.S. and European economic releases are concerned but Thursday will probably be the week’s most volatile day due to the ECB Meeting. The interest rate decision will be announced and more importantly, the ECB will announce whether they will start a government-bond buying program or not. The market already expects the ECB to introduce such a stimulus and if this proves wrong, the reaction will be mixed.
    Friday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, offering insights into the state of the manufacturing sectors in these countries.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound – US Dollar pair wasn’t affected strongly by Swiss National Bank’s decision and for the entire week, price action was mixed, without a lot of directional movement.



    Technical Outlook
    The pair is caped to the upside by 1.5260 resistance and to the downside by 1.5035 support. This week we expect a breakout which could take price into the next support located at 1.4830 or into the resistance offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are hovering near their oversold levels, a fact which could help the bulls if they attempt to break resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Wednesday the British Claimant Count Change is released, showing how many people applied for unemployment related welfare. A higher number indicates increased levels of unemployment and is usually detrimental for the currency. The same day the votes on the latest BoE interest rate decision are made public but this event usually creates strong movement only if one or more MPC members have changed their stances regarding the need for a rate adjustment. The final British event of the week is the release of the Retail Sales scheduled Friday. Since sales made at a retail level represent a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers are viewed as beneficial for the currency.[/size]

  9. #48
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    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: MULTI-YEAR LOWS REACHED. FURTHER DOWNSIDE ACTION EXPECTED


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the euro suffered great losses against most of its peers as the ECB decided the economy is in need of more stimulus than originally anticipated. The amount they settled on is 60 billion euro/month until the end of 2016.



    Technical Outlook

    Without a doubt last week was controlled by the bears and this week we expect to see further downside movement. The low at 1.1114 will offer the first potential support while potential resistance sits at 1.1450; both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic show a severe oversold condition on a daily chart and this makes way for some bullish pullbacks.

    Fundamental Outlook

    A German Business Climate survey is released Monday, showing the level of optimism among business owners, regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Tuesday the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are announced, followed later in the day by a Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

    Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the greenback as the Fed will announce the interest rate and a FOMC Statement is released, outlining the reasons which influenced the rate decision; it also can contain hints about future monetary policy.

    German inflation data comes out Thursday as the Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released. In light of recent events, we might see some changes in inflation numbers and this will translate into strong market moves. Friday the Euro Zone CPI comes out, offering a view on inflation in the entire Euro area. The last event of the week comes out the same day in the form of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product which as we know is an economy’s main gauge of performance and can have a hefty impact on the currency.


    GBP/USD

    The pair finally broke the horizontal channel inside which it was confined lately as the dollar extended its gains against the British Pound. The break was partly generated by MPC members’ change of stance regarding the interest rate – this time all members voted to keep rates unchanged.



    Technical Outlook

    If the break of 1.5035 can be sustained by the bears, we consider the next destination to be the support at 1.4830; otherwise the bulls will probably take price into the resistance at 1.5260. If this resistance will be touched, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will contribute to the strength of the level because by the time price climbs, the MA will probably descend in close vicinity of 1.5260, creating a confluence zone.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Bankers’ Association will announce Monday the number of new Mortgage Approvals, offering insights into the British house market. Tuesday the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and Friday the Net Lending to Individuals is announced, showing the change in the value of loans issued to consumers. The indicator offers hints about future consumer spending and consumer confidence.

  10. #49
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    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: FATE OF THE DOWNTREND DECIDED BY AMERICAN JOBS DATA


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was the first bullish one in a long time. The Fed mentioned patience regarding a potential rate hike and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product disappointed, thus the appeal of the U.S. Dollar somewhat diminished last week.



    Technical Outlook

    The downtrend is still intact but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) are starting to move upwards, after a long period they’ve spent in oversold area. This suggests that we might see another bullish week with the first target located at 1. 1450 (1.1460), followed by 1.1640. As mentioned before, the downtrend is still intact (although overextended) and this means that another encounter with 1.1100 support zone is not out of the question.

    Fundamental Outlook

    American manufacturing data is released Monday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI which acts as a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector. Tuesday is a slow day for economic releases and Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change comes out, offering hints about the Government-issued data which comes out 2 days later.

    Thursday the U.S. Trade Balance comes out, showing the difference between the value of imported and exported goods; a negative number means that more goods were imported than exported and this can have a negative impact on the greenback but often this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The week’s most important data comes out Friday: the U.S. Non Farm Employment Change. This is widely considered the most important jobs related indicator and shows how many new jobs were created in the analyzed month. A higher number of jobs suggests a thriving economy and indicates that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound – Dollar pair continued to move in a range last week and although price closed lower than it opened, neither bulls nor bears made significant advances.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is confined between 1.5260 resistance and 1.4950 support but price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a downtrend is still in place, although it’s currently stalling. A break of support would make 1.4830 the immediate target and to the upside 1.5260 combined with the 50 period EMA will offer strong resistance; however, the pair’s direction will be strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data scheduled for release this week.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMIs come out Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from each sector and usually act as leading indicators of economic health so better values are beneficial for the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event will probably have a small impact. The pair will be directly and strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data.

  11. #50
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    FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RESISTANCE TESTED. BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action was confined in a range, with all daily moves reversed completely the next day. American jobs data which surpassed analyst’s expectations puts the latest momentum in the hands of sellers.



    Technical Outlook

    All bullish moves were capped by 1.1500 resistance zone and all bearish moves encountered strong support around 1.1300. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic moved out of oversold territory and this means that now further moves south can occur easier than before. However, before that can happen, the Stochastic should cross downwards, agreeing with the Relative Strength Index. A break of 1.1300 would open the door for another encounter with the zone around 1.1100, while a break of 1.1500 would generate a move into 1.1640 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Monday is the first day of the G20 Meetings which take place in Istanbul. Members of the 20 member states meet in order to discuss a range of economic and political issues and this can have an effect on the currency market so we might see some strong movement. Tuesday the meetings continue but generally the day is calm and no major indicators are released.

    Wednesday the Eurogroup Meetings take place and are attended by key personalities from the Euro area, including the President of the European Central Bank. Again, volatility can be present, depending on the matters discussed.

    Thursday’s main event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales; the indicator tracks changes in levels of sales made at retail outlets and is considered to have a high-impact on the US Dollar as retail sales are an important part of consumer spending. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is released and the University of Michigan will make public their Consumer Sentiment survey. Both indicators have the potential to be strong market movers, especially if the actual values will be different than analysts’ expectations.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a bullish week on the back of positive economic data coming out of the United Kingdom. Some of the Pound’s gains were erased later in the week when the U.S. Jobs report was released.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair was in need of a bullish pullback such as the one seen last week since the downtrend seemed exhausted and new lows weren’t printed in a relatively long while. The current level at 1.5260, combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will offer good resistance and in fact rejection was already seen so we expect bearish moves once the Stochastic crosses downwards. First major support is located at 1.4950, while resistance sits at 1.5750 but we could have a slow week, with neither target being reached.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out and will be followed later in the day by the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. Although this is just an estimated value of the GDP, it usually has a strong impact on the Pound because it usually has high accuracy.

    Thursday the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report which contains an outlook for inflation and economic performance over the next 2 years. BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference the same day, discussing the contents of the Report and this is likely to be the day’s main market mover. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

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